Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, June 5, 2026
Top total bases spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Sproat. The lefty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Brandon Sproat has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brandon Sproat too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (91) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Chad Stevens (COL) (83) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (83) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (81) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (78) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Brandon Sproat has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and Chad Stevens (COL).
- RHP Ryan Feltner has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Brice Turang (MIL).
- LHP Reid Detmers has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Eric Haase (SF), and Luis Arraez (SF).
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Jake McCarthy finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.