Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Top total bases spot: Casey Schmitt
Casey Schmitt (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Elder. The righty is racking up bases at .477 TB/PA against righties this year — and .513 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 44% of his trips. And Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties lately — .684 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bryce Elder too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .524 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.529).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .423 into an arm tough on the same side (.111).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (97) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .494 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.143).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (95) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .466 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.143).
- Donovan Walton (LAA) (91) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .471 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600), hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (90) vs LHP Jake Bennett: an excellent bat at .539 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (88) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .481 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.143).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
- RHP Christian Scott has been getting squared up by righties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI).
- RHP Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
- RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Colt Keith (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .539 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .490 against righties this year.
- Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .684 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .516 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Casey Schmitt finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.