Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?

Casey Schmitt (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Elder. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Saturday, June 27, 2026: Casey Schmitt (100), Byron Buxton (100), Zach Neto (100), Bryce Harper (97), Kyle Schwarber (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, June 27, 2026?

Yes — Casey Schmitt got 1 total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .539 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .490 against righties this year. Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .684 against lefties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .516 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN). RHP Christian Scott has been getting squared up by righties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI). RHP Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Colt Keith (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, June 27, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, June 27, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 50% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 50%

Top 10

2/1020%

season 49%

Full slate

128/26249%

season 51%

Top call Bryce Harper came through. Casey Schmitt didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 8–6

HOUaway

DEThomeTop matchup65 Final · 1–4

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup90 Final · 7–4

TEXaway

TORhomeTop matchup77 Final · 9–7

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup68 Final · 2–6

PHIaway

NYMhomeTop matchup97 Final · 1–2

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup79 Final · 2–4

AZaway

TBhomeTop matchup82 Final · 4–3

WSHaway

BALhomeTop matchup70 Final · 8–5

COLaway

MINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–2

CHCaway

MILhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–4

SEAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup67 Final · 5–1

MIAaway

STLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 15–3

LADaway

SDhomeTop matchup61 Final · 0–5

ATLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 337 shownScore

177 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@MIN· 3-for-5
12TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #89
2
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsATL· 2-for-3
8TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T2
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@BAL· 4-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #57
4
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsLAD· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #107
T4
Christian Walker1B
HOU@DET· 4-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T4
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@SD· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #254
7
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@NYM· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #4
T7
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsHOU· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T7
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsATH· 2-for-2
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T7
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T7
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@MIL· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #127
T7
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@SD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #132
T7
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@PIT· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T7
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@CLE· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #164
T7
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsHOU· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #240
16
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsCOL· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #9
T16
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #13
T16
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsAZ· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #21
T16
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #27
T16
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@MIN· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #28
T16
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsCIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #48
T16
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@TB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T16
Otto LopezSS
MIA@STL· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T16
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsPHI· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #74
T16
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@STL· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #88
T16
Jonah HeimC
ATH@LAA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T16
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@SD· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #106
T16
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@TB· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #129
T16
Max Muncy3B
LAD@SD· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T16
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@SD· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T16
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@PIT· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #144
T16
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsTEX· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T16
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T16
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T16
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T16
Cam SmithRF
HOU@DET· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #201
T16
Kyle Karros3B
COL@MIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #210
T16
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
T16
Ian HappLF
CHC@MIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #233
T16
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@BOS· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234
T16
Dalton RushingC
LAD@SD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #261
T16
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsCIN· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #266
T16
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsCIN· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
44
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsATH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T44
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@MIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #35
T44
Josh BellDH
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #36
T44
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@CLE· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #41
T44
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCOL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #50
T44
Andy PagesCF
LAD@SD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #73
T44
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsHOU· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #80
T44
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@DET· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #82
T44
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsAZ· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #101
T44
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T44
Jake Burger1B
TEX@TOR· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T44
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@DET· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #135
T44
Miguel AndujarDH
SDvsLAD· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #170
T44
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@PIT· 2-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #173
T44
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsHOU· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #211
T44
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@MIN· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
T44
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@BAL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T44
Daylen LileLF
WSH@BAL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T44
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@STL· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #232
T44
Jose TrevinoC
CIN@PIT· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #259
64
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsTEX· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #20
T64
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #29
T64
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T64
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsSEA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #47
T64
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@CWS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T64
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T64
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@STL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T64
Michael Massey2B
KC@CWS· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #78
T64
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsATL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T64
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsKC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #81
T64
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #87
T64
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@CLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T64
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsMIA· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T64
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@SD· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T64
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsPHI· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T64
Jake MangumCF
PITvsCIN· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T64
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsKC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #116
T64
Blake PerkinsCF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T64
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsLAD· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #123
T64
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SF· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T64
Endy RodríguezC
PITvsCIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T64
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T64
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T64
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T64
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@MIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T64
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T64
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsPHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T64
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsKC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #181
T64
José TenaDH
WSH@BAL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #191
T64
Josh Jung3B
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #192
T64
Salvador PerezDH
KC@CWS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #195
T64
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsTEX· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
T64
Elias DíazC
TEX@TOR· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #204
T64
Carson KellyC
CHC@MIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #207
T64
Yainer DiazC
HOU@DET· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #209
T64
Michael Busch1B
CHC@MIL· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #224
T64
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@STL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T64
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@TB· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #230
T64
Chadwick TrompC
BALvsWSH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #237
T64
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #264
T64
Drew MillasC
WSH@BAL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #268
105
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #1
T105
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #8
T105
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #10
T105
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T105
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #14
T105
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #16
T105
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #19
T105
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@LAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T105
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T105
Carter JensenC
KC@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #25
T105
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #34
T105
Nick Kurtz1B
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T105
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #46
T105
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #52
T105
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #53
T105
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsLAD· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T105
JJ BledayLF
CIN@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T105
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T105
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T105
Matt ShawRF
CHC@MIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #69
T105
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsWSH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #72
T105
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #83
T105
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T105
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@BOS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T105
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@DET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T105
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsCIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #117
T105
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T105
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T105
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T105
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsCIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #130
T105
Sean KeysDH
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #131
T105
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #136
T105
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@CLE· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #138
T105
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T105
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T105
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #147
T105
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T105
Gary SánchezC
MILvsCHC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T105
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T105
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T105
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T105
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T105
Tristan GraySS
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T105
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #177
T105
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T105
Logan O'HoppeC
LAAvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #194
T105
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #198
T105
Cole Young2B
SEA@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T105
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T105
Cooper IngleC
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
T105
Joe MackC
MIA@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T105
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T105
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #221
T105
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T105
Colby ThomasRF
ATH@LAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #226
T105
Brett SullivanC
COL@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #235
T105
Jake MeyersCF
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T105
Rafael MarchánC
PHI@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #245
T105
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@CWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #247
T105
Christian VázquezC
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #248
T105
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsCHC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #249
T105
Dane MyersCF
CIN@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #253
T105
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #255
T105
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@BAL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #257
T105
Jake RogersC
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #262
T105
Will WagnerDH
SDvsLAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #263
T105
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@TOR· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T105
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@LAA· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T105
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@MIN· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T105
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@PIT· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T105
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsWSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T105
Ryan WardLF
LAD@SD· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB
T105
Oswald Peraza2B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026

Casey Schmitt (SF) is the top total bases matchup on the Saturday, June 27, 2026 board at 100, with Byron Buxton (MIN) and Zach Neto (LAA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Elder. The righty is racking up bases at .477 TB/PA against righties this year — and .513 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 44% of his trips. And Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties lately — .684 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bryce Elder too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .524 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.529).
Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .423 into an arm tough on the same side (.111).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (97) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .494 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.143).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (95) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .466 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.143).
Donovan Walton (LAA) (91) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .471 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600), hot bat.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (90) vs LHP Jake Bennett: an excellent bat at .539 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) (88) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .481 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.143).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
RHP Christian Scott has been getting squared up by righties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI).
RHP Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Colt Keith (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).

Platoon edges to target

Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .539 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .490 against righties this year.
Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .684 against lefties this year.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .516 against righties this year.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Casey Schmitt finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?: Casey Schmitt (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Elder. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Saturday, June 27, 2026: Casey Schmitt (100), Byron Buxton (100), Zach Neto (100), Bryce Harper (97), Kyle Schwarber (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, June 27, 2026?: Yes — Casey Schmitt got 1 total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .539 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .490 against righties this year. Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .684 against lefties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .516 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN). RHP Christian Scott has been getting squared up by righties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI). RHP Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Colt Keith (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.