Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Freddy Peralta. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, June 25, 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Paul Goldschmidt (83), Bryce Harper (83), Kyle Schwarber (79), Yordan Alvarez (74). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, June 25, 2026?

Yes — Pete Crow-Armstrong got 3 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .635 against lefties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .528 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .495 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .528 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .481 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Chapman (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF). RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Michael Conforto (CHC). RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Jake Burger (TEX). LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .404 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Curtis Mead (WSH), Dylan Crews (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, June 25, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, June 25, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on our total-bases over/under, against 51% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 51%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 50%

Full slate

63/13646%

season 51%

Top call Pete Crow-Armstrong came through. Yordan Alvarez didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–13

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup63 Final · 1–5

SEAaway

PIThomeTop matchup56 Final · 9–6

ATHaway

SFhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–1

HOUaway

DEThomeTop matchup74 Final · 10–5

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup83 Final · 6–5

TEXaway

TORhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–3

CHCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–6

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup83

Not starting39 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 183 shownScore

88 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsKC· 3-for-5
12TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
2
Henry DavisC
PITvsSEA· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #133
3
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@WSH· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #3
T3
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@WSH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T3
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsSEA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T3
Jake Burger1B
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T3
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@TOR· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #68
T3
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #70
T3
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T3
José CaballeroSS
NYY@BOS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #108
11
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsHOU· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #6
T11
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #11
T11
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsKC· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #15
T11
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@TOR· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #16
T11
Carter JensenC
KC@TB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #23
T11
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsATH· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T11
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #62
T11
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@DET· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #115
T11
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #116
T11
Jared Young1B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
21
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@NYM· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 2.3 TB, #1
T21
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@BOS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #2
T21
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPHI· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #18
T21
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T21
Henry BolteCF
ATH@SF· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #67
T21
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@SF· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T21
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@SF· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #109
T21
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@SF· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #113
T21
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #118
T21
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #131
31
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@WSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #4
T31
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #12
T31
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsKC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #26
T31
Cal RaleighC
SEA@PIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T31
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@SF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T31
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@WSH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T31
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsHOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T31
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #72
T31
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsKC· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T31
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsKC· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T31
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@WSH· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T31
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T31
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@WSH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T31
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsKC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #100
T31
Ronny MauricioSS
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T31
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEX@TOR· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #134
T31
Myles StrawCF
TORvsTEX· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #135
T31
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #141
49
Matt Chapman3B
SFvsATH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #7
T49
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T49
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #17
T49
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T49
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T49
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #29
T49
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #31
T49
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T49
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@SF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T49
Michael Busch1B
CHC@NYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T49
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T49
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T49
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T49
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T49
Ian HappLF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T49
Christian Walker1B
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T49
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@PIT· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T49
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #64
T49
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T49
Jonah HeimC
ATH@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T49
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T49
Max Muncy3B
ATH@SF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T49
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T49
Cam SmithRF
HOU@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T49
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T49
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #98
T49
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@BOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #101
T49
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #103
T49
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #104
T49
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #105
T49
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #117
T49
MJ MelendezDH
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #122
T49
Austin WellsC
NYY@BOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #123
T49
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsHOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #124
T49
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #130
T49
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #132
T49
Carlos NarváezC
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #138
T49
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #140
T49
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #142
T49
Nick FortesC
TBvsKC· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is the top total bases matchup on the Thursday, June 25, 2026 board at 100, with Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) and Bryce Harper (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Freddy Peralta. The lefty is racking up bases at .500 TB/PA against righties this year — and .932 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 55% of his trips. And Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties lately — .591 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Freddy Peralta too — .333 across 15 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (83) vs LHP Connelly Early: a strong bat at .470 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (83) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .494 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (79) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .457 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (74) vs RHP Troy Melton: an excellent bat at .503 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.515).
Dillon Dingler (DET) (70) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: an excellent bat at .500 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.556).
Matt Chapman (SF) (70) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a league-average bat at .368 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.800).
Casey Schmitt (SF) (69) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .400 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.800).

Arms giving up extra bases today

LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .481 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Chapman (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF).
RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Michael Conforto (CHC).
RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Jake Burger (TEX).
LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .404 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Curtis Mead (WSH), Dylan Crews (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).

Platoon edges to target

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .635 against lefties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .528 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .495 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .528 against righties this year.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Freddy Peralta. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Thursday, June 25, 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Paul Goldschmidt (83), Bryce Harper (83), Kyle Schwarber (79), Yordan Alvarez (74). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, June 25, 2026?: Yes — Pete Crow-Armstrong got 3 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .635 against lefties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .528 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .495 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .528 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .481 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Chapman (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF). RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Michael Conforto (CHC). RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Jake Burger (TEX). LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .404 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Curtis Mead (WSH), Dylan Crews (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.