Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Top total bases spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is racking up bases at .532 TB/PA against righties this year — and .837 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 54% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties lately — .585 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Zac Gallen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an elite bat at .552 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.591), hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (83) vs LHP Connelly Early: a strong bat at .470 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (83) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .494 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (79) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .457 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (77) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .412 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.585), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (74) vs RHP Troy Melton: an excellent bat at .503 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.515).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (71) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a solid bat at .399 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.633).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .481 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Chapman (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Michael Conforto (CHC).
- RHP Michael McGreevy has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .532 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .635 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .528 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .495 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.