Best MLB Walks Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026
Top walks spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The lefty is working counts at .188 BB/PA against righties this year — and .233 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 17% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been tough to walk against righties lately — .030 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .186 in 59 career PA against Aaron Nola, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (69) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .139 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.048).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (64) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .135 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.048).
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) (29) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .094 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.030).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (26) vs RHP Christian Scott: a league-average bat at .072 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.048), due to bounce back.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) (23) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a league-average bat at .081 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.030).
- Carson Benge (NYM) (20) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a league-average bat at .077 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.030), due to bounce back.
- Brett Baty (NYM) (14) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a league-average bat at .085 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.030), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .099 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Juan Soto finished with 3 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays