Who has the best walks matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB walks matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

The top walks matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (69), Bryce Harper (63), A.J. Ewing (29), Brandon Marsh (22). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by walks upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year. A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.

How is the walks matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

What does BB/PA mean?

Walks per plate appearance — how often a hitter draws a base on balls. Around .085 (one walk every ~12 trips) is league average; .12+ is elite plate discipline. The matchup pairs the hitter's walk rate with how freely the pitcher gives them up.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a walk.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a walk.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a walk in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for walks props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a walk a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Walks Board · Today

Best MLB walks matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by who's most likely to draw a walk. Plate discipline and how freely the pitcher and bullpen issue walks, plus lineup spot. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

7:10 PM ET

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 18 hitters are projected from each team's last game. Batting order (a key score driver) isn't final; these update automatically ~2 hours before first pitch.

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.168

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.31638 PA

Season.190216 PA

Last 2 Years.190881 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8vs KC2

Jul 9vs KC2

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS1

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.100

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04248 PA

Season.108251 PA

Last 2 Years.094689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.073

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.130154 PA

Season.073977 PA

Last 2 Years.0722821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.410

Hard-Hit %44%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.357

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head11-for-42

Walks17 in 59 PA

Career Average.186

Plate Appearances59

HR · K · BB5 · 11 · 17

Projection

Projected Walks1.361

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Juan Soto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.139

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.15944 PA

Season.150254 PA

Last 2 Years.155921 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET1

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05735 PA

Season.090144 PA

Last 2 Years.089168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.096

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.073204 PA

Season.0931156 PA

Last 2 Years.1022961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.372

Hard-Hit %43%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.310

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Walks1 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Walks0.992

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kyle Schwarber's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.136

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.13644 PA

Season.153248 PA

Last 2 Years.136796 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8@ CIN2

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET1

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05735 PA

Season.090144 PA

Last 2 Years.089168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.096

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.073204 PA

Season.0931156 PA

Last 2 Years.1022961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.392

Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.310

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Walks0 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Walks0.92

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryce Harper's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.095

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02343 PA

Season.100160 PA

Last 2 Years.100160 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.100

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04248 PA

Season.108251 PA

Last 2 Years.094689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.073

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.130154 PA

Season.073977 PA

Last 2 Years.0722821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.347

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.357

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-3

Walks0 in 3 PA

Career Average.667

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Walks0.529

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

A.J. Ewing's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.070

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08547 PA

Season.061262 PA

Last 2 Years.079781 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05735 PA

Season.090144 PA

Last 2 Years.089168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.096

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.073204 PA

Season.0931156 PA

Last 2 Years.1022961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.362

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.310

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Walks0 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Walks0.447

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brandon Marsh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.083

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05437 PA

Season.076119 PA

Last 2 Years.091839 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 7vs KC1

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS1

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.100

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04248 PA

Season.108251 PA

Last 2 Years.094689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.073

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.130154 PA

Season.073977 PA

Last 2 Years.0722821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.318

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.357

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head8-for-38

Walks2 in 42 PA

Career Average.191

Plate Appearances42

HR · K · BB1 · 10 · 2

Projection

Projected Walks0.439

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Francisco Lindor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.6×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.078

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.12540 PA

Season.076290 PA

Last 2 Years.076290 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS1

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.100

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04248 PA

Season.108251 PA

Last 2 Years.094689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.073

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.130154 PA

Season.073977 PA

Last 2 Years.0722821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.323

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.357

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-3

Walks0 in 3 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Walks0.415

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Carson Benge's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.086

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.07540 PA

Season.086255 PA

Last 2 Years.084604 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS1

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.100

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04248 PA

Season.108251 PA

Last 2 Years.094689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.073

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.130154 PA

Season.073977 PA

Last 2 Years.0722821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.301

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.357

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-12

Walks3 in 15 PA

Career Average.067

Plate Appearances15

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 3

Projection

Projected Walks0.353

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brett Baty's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.073

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06149 PA

Season.065276 PA

Last 2 Years.081905 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET1

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05735 PA

Season.090144 PA

Last 2 Years.089168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.096

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.073204 PA

Season.0931156 PA

Last 2 Years.1022961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.304

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.310

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Walks0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Walks0.299

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryson Stott's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~2.4× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.072

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.10946 PA

Season.074255 PA

Last 2 Years.060784 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.116

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.25020 PA

Season.14689 PA

Last 2 Years.131107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.091

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.098204 PA

Season.0941127 PA

Last 2 Years.0863332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.296

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.330

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Walks0.282

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Alec Bohm's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.051

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06844 PA

Season.040274 PA

Last 2 Years.052928 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN1

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.116

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.25020 PA

Season.14689 PA

Last 2 Years.131107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.091

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.098204 PA

Season.0941127 PA

Last 2 Years.0863332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.305

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.330

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Walks1 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Walks0.275

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Trea Turner's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.077

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.11817 PA

Season.08956 PA

Last 2 Years.045223 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 7@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.116

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.25020 PA

Season.14689 PA

Last 2 Years.131107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.091

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.098204 PA

Season.0941127 PA

Last 2 Years.0863332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.315

Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.330

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Walks0.275

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Derek Hill's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.076

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06531 PA

Season.074188 PA

Last 2 Years.071718 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.116

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.25020 PA

Season.14689 PA

Last 2 Years.131107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.091

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.098204 PA

Season.0941127 PA

Last 2 Years.0863332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.303

Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.330

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Walks0.261

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

J.T. Realmuto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.074

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0001 PA

Season.0007 PA

Last 2 Years.061393 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jun 27vs PHI0

Jun 28vs PHI0

Jul 4@ ATL1

Jul 11vs BOS1

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.042

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08723 PA

Season.023174 PA

Last 2 Years.037510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.069

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.080238 PA

Season.0691450 PA

Last 2 Years.0684553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.289

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.335

Hard-Hit % Allowed30%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Walks0.245

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Eric Wagaman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.067

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.15819 PA

Season.056126 PA

Last 2 Years.064392 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 5@ ATL1

Jul 6@ ATL0

Jul 7vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.042

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08723 PA

Season.023174 PA

Last 2 Years.037510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.069

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.080238 PA

Season.0691450 PA

Last 2 Years.0684553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.281

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.335

Hard-Hit % Allowed30%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-6

Walks0 in 6 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Walks0.202

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Luis Torrens's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.066

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.1119 PA

Season.06165 PA

Last 2 Years.039412 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jul 5@ ATL0

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS1

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.042

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08723 PA

Season.023174 PA

Last 2 Years.037510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.069

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.080238 PA

Season.0691450 PA

Last 2 Years.0684553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.288

Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.335

Hard-Hit % Allowed30%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head5-for-12

Walks1 in 14 PA

Career Average.357

Plate Appearances14

HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 1

Projection

Projected Walks0.191

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Tyrone Taylor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.077

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.3333 PA

Season.06133 PA

Last 2 Years.06775 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jun 18@ PHI0

Jun 20@ PHI0

Jul 10vs BOS1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.042

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08723 PA

Season.023174 PA

Last 2 Years.037510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.069

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.080238 PA

Season.0691450 PA

Last 2 Years.0684553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.268

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.335

Hard-Hit % Allowed30%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Walks0.192

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Zack Short's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Walks / PA vs RHP.042

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00010 PA

Season.00072 PA

Last 2 Years.026267 PA

Last 5 GamesWalks

Jun 27@ NYM0

Jul 6@ KC1

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.116

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.25020 PA

Season.14689 PA

Last 2 Years.131107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Walks allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.091

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.098204 PA

Season.0941127 PA

Last 2 Years.0863332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.273

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.330

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Walks0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Walks0.184

A rough estimate of walks to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Edmundo Sosa's full player page →

Best MLB Walks Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Juan Soto (NYM) is the top walks matchup on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Bryce Harper (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to draw a walk — plate discipline and how freely the pitcher and bullpen issue walks, plus lineup spot. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top walks spot: Juan Soto

Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The lefty is working counts at .190 BB/PA against righties this year — and .316 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 17% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been tough to walk against righties lately — .042 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .186 in 59 career PA against Aaron Nola, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (69) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .139 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.057).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (63) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .136 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.057).
A.J. Ewing (NYM) (29) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .095 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.042).
Brandon Marsh (PHI) (22) vs RHP Christian Scott: a league-average bat at .070 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.057), due to bounce back.
Francisco Lindor (NYM) (22) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a league-average bat at .083 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.042).
Carson Benge (NYM) (20) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a league-average bat at .078 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.042), due to bounce back.
Brett Baty (NYM) (14) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .086 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.042), due to bounce back.

Platoon edges to target

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.

Lineup watch

18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How to read these walks matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best walks matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB walks matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: The top walks matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (69), Bryce Harper (63), A.J. Ewing (29), Brandon Marsh (22). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by walks upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year. A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
How is the walks matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does BB/PA mean?: Walks per plate appearance — how often a hitter draws a base on balls. Around .085 (one walk every ~12 trips) is league average; .12+ is elite plate discipline. The matchup pairs the hitter's walk rate with how freely the pitcher gives them up.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a walk.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a walk.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a walk in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for walks props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a walk a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the walks board is

The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His plate discipline.
The pitcher's control.
The count leverage in the matchup.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.

How to use it

Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays