Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Top walks spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. The lefty is working counts at .190 BB/PA against righties this year — and .316 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 17% of his trips. And Dylan Cease has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .140 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Dylan Cease, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (NL) (72) vs RHP Dylan Cease: an excellent bat at .139 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.140).
- Junior Caminero (AL) (57) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: an excellent bat at .132 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.065).
- Freddie Freeman (NL) (54) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a strong bat at .113 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.140).
- Max Muncy (NL) (50) vs RHP Dylan Cease: an excellent bat at .132 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.140), due to bounce back.
- Mike Trout (AL) (48) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: an elite bat at .153 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.065).
- Shea Langeliers (AL) (37) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a league-average bat at .084 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.065).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (AL) (35) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .086 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.065).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Junior Caminero (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .187 against lefties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
- Max Muncy (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .129 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays