Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026
Top walks spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. The lefty is working counts at .200 BB/PA against righties this year — and .318 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 17% of his trips. And Will Warren has been tough to walk against righties lately — .067 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Will Warren. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Rafael Devers (SF) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .111 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143), hitter's park.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (100) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .144 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.233).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (98) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an elite bat at .161 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.063).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (95) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143), hitter's park.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (80) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a strong bat at .117 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Cole Carrigg (COL) (80) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.043), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Kyle Karros (COL) (78) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000), hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .200 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Rafael Devers (SF) at 100.
- UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Corbin Carroll (AZ) at 80.
- Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) at 57.
- PNC Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Brice Turang (MIL) at 55.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play James Wood finished with 2 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays