Today's matchup
Francisco draws Chicago White Sox on the road today. He shows up on 12 boards — h+r+rbi (70.3/100, #41), runs (65.9/100, #28), total bases (65.2/100, #40), rbis (64.5/100, #47). We've got him at 1.8 on the h+r+rbi board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
He's in a cold stretch
Francisco is 6-for-37 (.162) across his last 10 games, down from .226 on the season. Slumps this size are mostly noise at this sample — 37 at-bats is a fortnight, not a trend — and the model treats it that way, discounting the cold run rather than writing him off. If the matchup underneath is good, he'll still grade well here. That's a feature, and sometimes it's wrong.
What kind of hitter he is
Francisco has 12 home runs and 23 extra-base hits in 279 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.
He bats from both sides
Francisco is a switch-hitter, which changes how the model reads every one of his matchups. Most hitters carry a real platoon penalty — a lefty bat facing a good lefty arm is a materially worse spot, and the score drops accordingly. Francisco takes the favourable side almost every night, so he doesn't collect that penalty. What moves his number instead is the quality of the arm rather than its handedness, and how the two sides of his own swing actually compare, which is rarely as balanced as the switch-hitter label suggests.
Floor and ceiling
Francisco has recorded at least one hit in 42 of 71 games he's batted in — 59% — with 17 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.
Home and away
Francisco is hitting .237 at home (31-for-131) and .216 on the road (32-for-148) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.
His best game in the log
Francisco's biggest night was Monday, August 10, 2026 at ATL — 3-for-5 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
How our calls on Francisco have graded
In the 5 games where we ranked Francisco a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 1 times — 20%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.
Where he lands across our boards
Francisco was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: h+r+rbi graded 70.3/100 while doubles came in at 16.3/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Francisco gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.
What we'd flag
Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.