Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026
Top walks spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 88, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. The lefty is working counts at .177 BB/PA against righties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 16% of his trips. And Cal Quantrill has been around league average against righties lately — .091 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .100 in 10 career PA against Cal Quantrill, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Iván Herrera (STL) (82) vs LHP Chris Sale: an elite bat at .155 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.059), due to bounce back.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (79) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an elite bat at .170 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Jordan Walker (STL) (74) vs LHP Chris Sale: a strong bat at .102 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.059).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (71) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.029), hitter's park.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (71) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .112 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.227).
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (70) vs LHP JP Sears: an excellent bat at .133 into an arm around league average against the same side (.094), hitter's park.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (68) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .108 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.029), hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Iván Herrera (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .198 against lefties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .193 against righties this year.
- Jordan Walker (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .120 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Bryce Eldridge (SF) at 71.
- Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) at 70.
- UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Corbin Carroll (AZ) at 61.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays