Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, June 20, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 27 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.4%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)10.4%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.1%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.8%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.1%3.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.4%3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)10.3%2.6
7. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)9.7%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.6%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload12.6 BF
Expected batters faced12.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)13.9%2.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)11.3%2.0
3. José Tena (L)12.8%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)12.3%1.6
5. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.5%1.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)10.1%1.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (R)14.6%1.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.9%1.0
9. Jacob Young (R)13.0%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.0%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)16.0%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)17.1%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)12.1%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.7%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%3.0
6. Jonah Heim (L)9.6%2.8
7. Carlos Cortes (L)9.1%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)8.3%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.4%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)9.5%3.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)12.1%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)9.9%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.5%2.0
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.1%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)10.3%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)9.4%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)13.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.1%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)13.5%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.9%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)14.3%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)12.2%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)12.1%3.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)13.2%2.5
8. Blaze Alexander (R)12.0%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)13.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.2%
vs RHB8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)12.6%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)10.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)15.4%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)9.8%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)14.2%3.0
7. Blake Perkins (R)12.8%2.8
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)10.9%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.6%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.2%2.7
6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)12.7%2.0
7. Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)10.4%2.0
9. Andruw Monasterio (R)8.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB8.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)12.6%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)13.4%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)14.5%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)13.0%3.0
5. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.8
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.6%2.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)14.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.7%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.3%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)14.2%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)12.2%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.0%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)12.6%2.9
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.7%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)9.2%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)11.2%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.9%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)14.1%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)11.6%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)12.2%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.8%3.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.6%3.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%2.4
8. Drew Gilbert (L)12.6%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)8.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)14.2%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R)10.3%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.2%3.0
4. Dominic Smith (L)11.1%2.8
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.3%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)10.5%2.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)12.5%2.0
8. Eli White (R)11.6%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)14.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.6%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (R)10.3%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)10.8%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)9.1%3.0
5. Cole Young (L)9.4%3.0
6. Colt Emerson (L)11.8%3.0
7. Mitch Garver (R)11.9%2.1
8. Victor Robles (R)11.3%2.0
9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)13.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB13.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Tommy Edman (R)12.3%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)10.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.3%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%2.5
5. Miguel Rojas (R)12.1%2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)10.9%2.0
7. Alex Call (R)13.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)12.5%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (R)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)11.3%3.0
2. Jasson Domínguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)12.8%3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)13.3%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)12.6%3.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.1
7. Anthony Volpe (R)14.4%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)9.2%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%3.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%2.8
7. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)14.1%3.0
2. Nick Madrigal (R)13.9%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)13.5%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.5%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)7.6%3.0
6. Christian Moore (R)10.3%2.8
7. Denzer Guzman (R)11.2%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.3%2.0
9. Jose Siri (R)14.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)10.1%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.8%3.0
3. Jonny DeLuca (R)11.7%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)12.6%3.0
5. Cedric Mullins (L)11.8%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.2%2.5
7. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)12.7%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)10.9%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)12.0%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)12.3%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.0%2.5
5. Jose Altuve (R)14.5%2.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)11.6%2.0
7. Cam Smith (R)10.7%2.0
8. Joey Loperfido (L)10.2%2.0
9. Jake Meyers (R)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)14.2%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)13.7%3.0
3. Chase Meidroth (R)11.3%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.0%3.0
5. Edgar Quero (L)8.5%3.0
6. Junior Perez (R)11.7%3.0
7. Sam Antonacci (L)15.7%2.4
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)12.1%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)13.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.7%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)14.3%3.0
2. Owen Caissie (L)10.7%3.0
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.2%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Otto Lopez (R)14.6%3.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.2%2.1
7. Connor Norby (R)10.7%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.9 BF
Expected batters faced25.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)10.7%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)14.6%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)11.6%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.0%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.1%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)10.8%3.0
7. Ty France (R)9.7%3.0
8. Will Wagner (L)11.8%2.9
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.8%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.8%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)15.4%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.2%3.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)9.8%3.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.8
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)12.1%2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)12.2%3.0
2. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
3. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.2%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)10.3%3.0
5. Brandon Lowe (L)14.3%2.8
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)12.4%2.0
7. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)10.2%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload26.3 BF
Expected batters faced26.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%3.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%3.0
7. Brett Baty (L)11.7%3.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%3.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.7%2.3
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)10.9%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)9.6%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.8%2.5
5. Ian Happ (R)12.6%2.0
6. Matt Shaw (R)12.6%2.0
7. Nico Hoerner (R)12.1%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)15.2%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)15.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.1%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)12.5%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.2%3.0
3. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)9.2%3.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)12.1%2.2
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.5%2.0
8. Davis Schneider (R)13.1%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)9.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)15.1%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)9.7%3.0
5. Josh Bell (L)12.9%3.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)11.8%3.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)9.5%2.1
8. Tristan Gray (L)9.2%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)12.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No ER recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, June 20, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER, with Ian Seymour (TB) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) tops the Saturday, June 20, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER vs CLE. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Ian Seymour (TB) (94) — about 1.8 ER vs WSH.
Walbert Ureña (LAA) (75) — about 2.2 ER vs ATH.
Walker Buehler (SD) (67) — about 2.3 ER vs TEX.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) (67) — about 2.3 ER vs BAL.
Chris Sale (ATL) (65) — about 2.3 ER vs MIL.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, June 20, 2026)?
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER against CLE.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, June 20, 2026: Spencer Arrighetti (~1.7 ER), Ian Seymour (~1.8 ER), Walbert Ureña (~2.2 ER), Walker Buehler (~2.3 ER), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
