MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.268 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 2.846 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.20 fantasy points a trip. And Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties lately — 1.823 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Mitch Keller too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (87) vs RHP Michael Wacha: an excellent bat at 2.111 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.500), hot bat.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (83) vs RHP Michael King: an elite bat at 2.311 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.870), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (82) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at 1.969 into an arm tough on the same side (1.280), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (79) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: an excellent bat at 2.092 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.571).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (77) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: an excellent bat at 2.124 into an arm tough on the same side (.750), hot bat.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (75) vs RHP Kodai Senga: a strong bat at 1.927 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (73) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at 1.948 into an arm tough on the same side (1.063).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties — 2.055 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Zach Neto (LAA).
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been getting lit up by righties — 2.021 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
- RHP Kodai Senga has been getting lit up by righties — 2.009 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Blake Dunn (CIN).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — 1.889 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Joc Pederson (TEX), Josh Jung (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.268 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.325 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.281 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.849 against righties this year.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.291 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 7 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays