MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luinder Avila. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.325 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 2.600 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.11 fantasy points a trip. And Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties lately — 3.000 fantasy points per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Luinder Avila, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: an excellent bat at 2.199 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.975), hot bat.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (97) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at 1.962 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.085), hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (96) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an excellent bat at 2.173 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.071), hot bat.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (89) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at 2.120 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.912).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (88) vs RHP Bradgley Rodriguez: an elite bat at 2.311 into an arm tough on the same side (.833), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (87) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an excellent bat at 2.124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.083).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (86) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a strong bat at 1.948 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Andrew Painter has been getting lit up by righties — 2.049 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
- RHP Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties — 2.032 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- RHP Zack Littell has been vulnerable to righties — 1.889 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Michael Massey (KC).
- RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — 1.838 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Spencer Torkelson (DET), and Kevin McGonigle (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.325 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.268 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.152 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.736 against lefties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.281 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play James Wood finished with 0 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays