MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.271 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 2.000 over the last two weeks, a strong bat worth about 1.96 fantasy points a trip. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting lit up by righties lately — 2.103 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an elite bat at 2.309 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.300).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at 2.101 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.962).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (94) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at 2.057 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000).
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (90) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at 1.713 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.103), hitter's park.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (88) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at 1.765 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.962).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (87) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at 1.861 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.179).
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (86) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at 1.805 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.103), hitter's park, hot bat.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties — 1.932 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Jakob Marsee (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
- RHP Taj Bradley has been getting lit up by righties — 1.928 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- LHP Joey Cantillo has been getting lit up by lefties — 1.901 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Christian Walker (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — 1.887 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC).
Platoon edges to target
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.271 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.370 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.862 against righties this year.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.838 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.788 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 100.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Brandon Lowe finished with 8 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays