MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Friday, June 19, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Gibson. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.036 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 2.405 over the last two weeks, a strong bat worth about 1.95 fantasy points a trip. And Trey Gibson has been getting lit up by righties lately — 2.438 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Trey Gibson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP José Soriano: an elite bat at 2.309 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.943), hot bat.
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) (97) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a solid bat at 1.761 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.438), hot bat.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (94) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a solid bat at 1.794 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.880).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (90) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at 1.948 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (1.546).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (88) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at 1.800 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.207).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (85) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at 2.283 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.850).
- Max Muncy (LAD) (80) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a strong bat at 1.876 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.438), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.102 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Gonzales (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Ryan O'Hearn (PIT).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.001 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Jo Adell (LAA), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA).
- RHP Tatsuya Imai has been vulnerable to righties — 1.889 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE).
- LHP Brandon Eisert has been vulnerable to lefties — 1.866 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.036 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.370 against righties this year.
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.674 against righties this year.
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.839 against lefties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.234 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Nick Gonzales (PIT) at 79.
How it played out
10 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Freddie Freeman finished with 2 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays