Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Saturday, June 13, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is stacking production at .781 (H+R+RBI)/PA against lefties this year — and 1.222 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 65% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .738 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — 1.000 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jonah Heim (ATH) (87) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: an excellent bat at .594 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.738).
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (78) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .506 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.706).
- Colby Thomas (ATH) (77) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .462 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.738).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (76) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .539 into an arm tough on the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Jordan Walker (STL) (73) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an excellent bat at .587 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.531), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (73) vs RHP Joey Estes: an excellent bat at .551 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (73) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .534 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.517).
Arms giving up production today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — .600 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Shea Langeliers (ATH), Jonah Heim (ATH), and Colby Thomas (ATH).
- LHP Joey Cantillo has been getting lit up by lefties — .598 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Gleyber Torres (DET), Matt Vierling (DET), and Dillon Dingler (DET).
- RHP Mike Burrows has been getting lit up by righties — .594 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Vinnie Pasquantino (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Jac Caglianone (KC).
- RHP Joey Estes has been getting lit up by righties — .566 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Edouard Julien (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
Platoon edges to target
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .781 against lefties this year.
- Jonah Heim (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .652 against lefties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .595 against righties this year.
- Colby Thomas (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .480 against lefties this year.
- Jordan Walker (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .676 against lefties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Shea Langeliers finished with 2 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays