Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Patrick Corbin. The righty is stacking production at .714 (H+R+RBI)/PA against lefties this year — and 1.154 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 59% of his trips. And Patrick Corbin has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .852 H+R+RBI per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Patrick Corbin too — .400 across 20 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Alec Burleson (STL) (99) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .619 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.719), hot bat.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (90) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an excellent bat at .555 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.591), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (90) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .524 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.611), hot bat.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (84) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .507 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.719).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (82) vs RHP Logan Webb: an excellent bat at .555 into an arm tough on the same side (.210).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (81) vs RHP Walker Buehler: an excellent bat at .574 into an arm giving up production to the same side (.458), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (81) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .612 into an arm tough on the same side (.300).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been getting lit up by righties — .591 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Cedric Mullins (TB).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — .580 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Blake Dunn (CIN).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been getting lit up by lefties — .547 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Jasson Domínguez (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY).
- LHP Trevor Rogers has been vulnerable to lefties — .506 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Jackson Merrill (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .714 against lefties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .614 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .619 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .538 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .523 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Paul Goldschmidt finished with 3 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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