Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Anthony Kay. The righty is stacking production at .722 (H+R+RBI)/PA against lefties this year — and 1.133 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 60% of his trips. And Anthony Kay has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .679 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Anthony Kay. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (99) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at .547 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.894), hot bat.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (90) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: an excellent bat at .565 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.550).
- James Wood (WSH) (90) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .542 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.909), hot bat.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (90) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at .591 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.471).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (86) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .538 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.625), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (85) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an excellent bat at .593 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.750).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (82) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: an excellent bat at .606 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties — .597 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- RHP Andrew Painter has been getting lit up by righties — .592 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Kyle Stowers (MIA).
- RHP Zack Littell has been getting lit up by righties — .529 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Michael Massey (KC).
- RHP Sandy Alcantara has been getting lit up by righties — .524 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Trea Turner (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI).
Platoon edges to target
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .722 against lefties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .619 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .583 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .546 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .529 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Paul Goldschmidt finished with 6 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays