Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is stacking production at .546 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .615 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 54% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting lit up by righties lately — .559 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Mitch Keller too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (88) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: an excellent bat at .593 into an arm tough on the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (88) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .526 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.400), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (86) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .542 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.722), hot bat.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (83) vs RHP Michael King: an elite bat at .624 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.391), hot bat.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (81) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .517 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.529).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (80) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a strong bat at .532 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.357).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (79) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .524 into an arm tough on the same side (.188).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been getting lit up by righties — .576 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
- RHP Kodai Senga has been getting lit up by righties — .567 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Blake Dunn (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties — .553 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Zach Neto (LAA).
- RHP Mitch Keller has been getting lit up by righties — .524 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Carlos Cortes (ATH).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .546 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .583 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .619 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .590 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 2 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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