Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, May 2, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kyle Bradish. The righty is going deep on .073 HR/PA against righties this year — and .083 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Kyle Bradish has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .050 in 20 career PA against Kyle Bradish, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (87) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (87) vs RHP Dylan Cease: real bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (84) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: real bat at .048 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (77) vs RHP Max Meyer: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (68) vs RHP Michael King: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (65) vs RHP Nolan McLean: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059), hot bat.
- Corey Seager (TEX) (65) vs RHP Keider Montero: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .029 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .110 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .092 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.