Analysis

What the model got right, what it got wrong, and why — written by the people who built it, from the same graded ledger the boards publish.

Updated Nov 5, 11:07 AM ET

CoreyCo-founder · data, site structure and the analytics pieces

JonathanCo-founder · product, and the review behind every play and piece

Every projection on this site is scored against the real result. These are the pieces written from that ledger — the methodology behind a number, the edge we thought we had and didn't, the week a board earned its place, the call that looked right and lost anyway. A name on a piece means that person wrote or reviewed it before it went up.

Analysis · November 5, 2026 · Corey · College footballThe College Football Spread Nobody UpdatesFCS teams scored 16.2 points a game in 2023 guarantee games, 15.1 in 2024, 12.4 in 2025. Using last year's number is already wrong before the season starts.
Analysis · November 4, 2026 · Jonathan · NBANo Call Until the Lineup LandsOne backup center was projected for 14 minutes. He started and played 25. That gap is why the board holds its call until the starting lineup is confirmed.
Weekly recap · November 3, 2026 · Jonathan · MLB · NBA · NHL · NFLNHL's 15-2 Run Carries a 32-21 Week for Plays of the DayMatchWiz Plays of the Day went 32-21 for +6.95 units this week, with NHL doing almost all the heavy lifting while NBA broke even and NFL lost ground.
Weekly recap · October 27, 2026 · Jonathan · MLBA Rough Week at the Top: MatchWiz's Top 3 Ranked Calls Sink to 18-for-32Across 258 graded rows between Oct 19 and Oct 25, the full board held at 216 of 518, but the top-ranked tier and the home run board both had a tough stretch.
Weekly recap · October 25, 2026 · Jonathan · MLBRanked Calls Go 477-of-1384 as Home Runs Stay Ice ColdMatchWiz graded 520 rows of MLB calls this week, with the full board hitting 477 of 1384 and home runs the hardest stat on the slate at just 8%.
Weekly recap · October 23, 2026 · Jonathan · MLBTwo-for-Five Across the Board: A Rough Week for MatchWiz's Top CallsThe Play of the Day pool went 2-for-5 at -26% ROI this week, and the posted plays matched it call for call.
Weekly recap · October 19, 2026 · Jonathan · MLBPlays of the Day Go 8 of 9 as the Padres Snap the RunMatchWiz graded 448 matchups for the week of 28 September to 4 October, with Plays of the Day hitting 8 of 9 for a 60% ROI.
Analysis · October 7, 2026 · Corey · NFLThe Best Price on an NFL Prop Is Rarely at Your BookWe compared 45,790 NFL player props quoted by three or more sportsbooks. The best price beat the typical one 89% of the time.
Weekly recap · September 30, 2026 · Jonathan · MLBPlays of the Day Crater as the Boards Keep GrindingMatchWiz's Play of the Day went 2 for 8 this week for a -55% ROI, even as 626 rows graded across the rest of the baseball boards.
Weekly recap · September 22, 2026 · Jonathan · MLBA -20% Week for the Play of the Day, While Pitcher Walks Carried the BoardThe Play of the Day pool went 10-22 for a -20% ROI this week, even as pitcher boards kept hitting.
Analysis · September 21, 2026 · Jonathan · MLBCash and GPP Aren't the Same Game27% of salary-slotted hitters score 0 on any given night. Only 6% score 20 or more. Those two numbers define your entire strategy.
Analysis · September 21, 2026 · Corey · MLBWhy Strikeouts Work When Home Runs Don'tStrikeouts post 61% and +10.8% ROI at a gap of 1.5 or more. HR, total bases, H+R+RBI, and UFC all graded negative. Here's the honest map.
Analysis · September 20, 2026 · Jonathan · MLBWhat Gets a Play Posted — and What Happens AfterEvery Play of the Day starts with a 1.5-strikeout gap. The line freezes the moment it posts. Win or lose, it stays in the same ledger that tunes the model.
Analysis · September 19, 2026 · Corey · College footballThe Score Got Better. The Predictions Got Worse.One parameter, wrong optimization: our college football projections ran 25% too narrow. Mean absolute error said we were improving. Calibration disagreed.
Analysis · September 18, 2026 · Corey · GolfWe Published 72%. The Honest Number Is 64%.At 38 of 169 tournaments we graded, no cut was held. Our model scored 100% at all 38. The published make-cut rate was 72.0%. The real number was 64.3%.
Analysis · September 17, 2026 · Corey · College footballWhen NFL Math Shrank College Football's Talent GapOhio State −32.0, market −50.5. A number built for the NFL's parity league was compressing college football's real talent gap. The totals hid it.
Analysis · September 16, 2026 · Corey · NFLWe Found a 26% Edge. It Wasn't Real.Our tackle-prop model returned 26% profit in testing. Then we bet the same games with no model at all and made the same 26%.
Analysis · September 15, 2026 · Corey · College footballRecruiting Rankings Stop Explaining College FootballAcross 2,501 games the recruiting gap explains 32% of the scoreboard in September, 5% from October on, and under 1% of how a season finishes after week 10.
Weekly recap · September 15, 2026 · Jonathan · MLB · UFC · SoccerPlays of the Day Slip to 15-for-32 While the Full Board Keeps CashingMatchWiz's headline Play of the Day call went 15-for-32 for a -18% ROI this week, even as the full MLB board turned in 5,489 winners across 15,003 ranked matchups.
Weekly recap · September 15, 2026 · Jonathan · MLB · UFC · SoccerA's Overs Carry a Rough Week for Unders as Plays of the Day Go 19-31MatchWiz graded 635 rows this week, with the Play of the Day finishing 19 for 31 at +8% ROI.
Weekly recap · September 4, 2026 · MLB · Golf · UFC · SoccerPlays of the Day Slide to 8-18 as Scheffler Delivers at East LakeMatchWiz's Play of the Day pool went 8 for 18 with a -22% ROI this week, while the golf board nailed Scottie Scheffler's win outright at the TOUR Championship.
Weekly recap · September 4, 2026 · MLB · Golf · UFC · SoccerPlays of the Day Slip to -8% as the Board's Stat Splits WidenMatchWiz's Plays of the Day went 13 of 25 for the week ending August 23 and still finished at -8% ROI, while the strikeout and walk boards for pitchers ran hot and the home run board stayed cold.
Weekly recap · September 4, 2026 · MLB · Golf · UFC · SoccerScheffler Backs Up the Top Pick as Plays of the Day Go 11-for-16The Play of the Day pool hit 11 of 16 for a 23% ROI while Scottie Scheffler validated our No. 1 golf pick with a St. Jude win.
Weekly recap · September 4, 2026 · MLB · Golf · UFCThe Play of the Day Pool Loses 16% While the Full Board Grinds Through 14,935 CallsMLB's Play of the Day pool went 1-for-2 and finished the week at -16% ROI, even as the full board hit 5,158 of 14,935 ranked matchups.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · Golf · UFCA 19% Week Undone by One Strikeout CallMatchWiz's Play of the Day pool went 16-for-24 at 19% ROI over August 3 to August 9, while a blown strikeout under nearly wrecked it.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · Golf · UFC · SoccerThree Strikeout Unders Blow Up as Play of the Day Ekes Out a 6% WeekPlays of the Day went 4 of 7 for a 6% ROI while the posted-play log limped to 11 of 22 across 602 graded rows.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · Golf · UFC · SoccerA 30% Week for the Headline Call, a Cold One for Home RunsThe Play of the Day pool went 3 of 4 for a 30% ROI while the posted plays cooled to 14 of 23 across a 602-row graded week.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · Golf · UFC · SoccerPlays of the Day Go 2-for-4 While UFC Nails 11 of 12The headline call finished 2 of 4 for a -15% ROI this week, even as the posted plays, MLB boards, UFC card and golf slate all told their own separate stories.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · GolfThree-for-Six on the Headline Call, and a Cubs Total That Blew Up to 23Plays of the Day went 3-for-6 for a -14% ROI this week, while the posted-play log settled at 23-for-46 across 602 graded rows.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · Golf3-for-16: MatchWiz's Play of the Day Has Its Worst Week of the YearThe headline call went 3 for 16 for a -67% ROI this week, even as the ranked boards underneath it kept grinding.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · GolfOne for Two on the Plays of the Day, and a U.S. Open Winner We Had Ranked 27thThis week's Play of the Day pool went 1 of 2 for a -15% ROI, while the ranked matchup pools and stat boards told a much steadier story across 602 graded rows.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · GolfOne Play of the Day, One Win, and a Cold Week for Home RunsMatchWiz graded 602 rows this week, with its lone Play of the Day cashing at 69% ROI while home run calls stayed stuck at 14%.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · GolfNo Play of the Day, a Winner Ranked 54th, and a Week the Boards Had to CarryThere's no Play of the Day to report this week — instead it's 527 graded MLB rows and a golf winner our board had ranked 54th.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · Golf · SoccerA 16% Week for the Headline Call, a Rough One at the Top of the Golf BoardMatchWiz's Play of the Day pool went 4 of 6 for a 16% ROI this week, while the ranked stat boards were mixed and the winner at the Schwab Challenge came from nowhere near our top ranking.
Weekly recap · August 17, 2026 · MLB · Golf · SoccerA 1% Week for the Play of the Day, But the Hits Allowed Board Ran HotMatchWiz graded 332 rows this week, and the headline call — the Play of the Day — finished 3 for 6 for a 1% ROI.