MLB moneyline & run totals — Thursday, July 2, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (53%, n=301) and game total (52%, n=278), but it's beating the book on its strongest team-total leans — 57% at +3% ROI over 131 graded plays (the ones we surface). Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓47%+114fair+110mktModel lean+1.0%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%-114fair-130mkt-1.0%
CINCincinnati Reds✓28%+252fair+173mkt-6.8%
MILMilwaukee Brewers72%-252fair-205mktModel lean+6.8%
MIAMiami Marlins59%-143fair-136mktModel lean+3.4%
COLColorado Rockies✓41%+143fair+116mkt-3.4%
CWSChicago White Sox57%-133fair+113mktModel lean+12.0%
CLECleveland Guardians✓43%+133fair-133mkt-12.0%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓23%+341fair-100mkt-25.4%
ATLAtlanta Braves77%-341fair-118mktModel lean+25.4%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓73%-264fair-130mktModel lean+18.3%
KCKansas City Royals27%+264fair+110mkt-18.3%
DETDetroit Tigers42%+137fair-110mkt-7.9%
TEXTexas Rangers✓58%-137fair-109mktModel lean+7.9%
LAALos Angeles Angels38%+160fair+188mktModel lean+5.0%
SEASeattle Mariners✓62%-160fair-225mkt-5.0%
SDSan Diego Padres30%+228fair+196mkt-1.9%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓70%-228fair-240mktModel lean+1.9%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.