MLB moneyline & run totals — Thursday, July 9, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (53%, n=396) and game total (52%, n=371), but it's beating the book on its strongest team-total leans — 65% at +16% ROI over 71 graded plays (the ones we surface). Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
◆ Strongest leans — our biggest ML · total · team-total · NRFI disagreements →
ATLAtlanta Braves✓50%+100fair-110mkt-0.4%
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%-100fair-107mktModel lean+0.4%
KCKansas City Royals50%-101fair+119mktModel lean+6.4%
NYMNew York Mets✓50%+101fair-140mkt-6.4%
NYYNew York Yankees✓51%-104fair+130mktModel lean+8.9%
TBTampa Bay Rays49%+104fair-150mkt-8.9%
CHCChicago Cubs33%+200fair+108mkt-13.1%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓67%-200fair-125mktModel lean+13.1%
CLECleveland Guardians✓48%+107fair-130mkt-6.1%
MINMinnesota Twins52%-107fair+110mktModel lean+6.1%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓45%+124fair-104mkt-4.3%
CWSChicago White Sox55%-124fair-114mktModel lean+4.3%
ATHAthletics52%-110fair+109mktModel lean+6.2%
DETDetroit Tigers✓48%+110fair-127mkt-6.2%
SEASeattle Mariners64%-178fair-125mktModel lean+10.3%
MIAMiami Marlins✓36%+178fair+109mkt-10.3%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓54%-116fair-170mkt-6.9%
CINCincinnati Reds46%+116fair+143mktModel lean+6.9%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓60%-149fair-134mktModel lean+4.8%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals40%+149fair+113mkt-4.8%
LAALos Angeles Angels42%+138fair+118mkt-2.1%
TEXTexas Rangers✓58%-138fair-139mktModel lean+2.1%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓52%-110fair+109mktModel lean+6.2%
SDSan Diego Padres48%+110fair-125mkt-6.2%
COLColorado Rockies44%+127fair+132mktModel lean+2.7%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓56%-127fair-156mkt-2.7%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.
MLB moneyline & team totals — FAQ
How accurate is MatchWiz's MLB moneyline and run-total model?
We grade every game against the result and post the record right on the board. Moneylines and game totals are efficient markets, so the model grades near break-even there and we treat those as transparency, not plays. Team totals are a softer market — that's where it's finding a real edge.
What's a team total, and why does the model bet it?
A team total is the over/under on one club's runs, not the whole game. It's a softer, less-efficient market than the moneyline, so our run projections find more room there. When our projected runs gap the line enough, we post it as a play with recommended units.
How does the run-total (over/under) projection work?
We project each side's runs from its lineup against the starter and bullpen, plus park and weather, then sum both sides for the game total and set it beside the market line. Over or under is just which side of that line we land on. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly.
Are these MLB betting picks?
No. Every number here is a graded research signal from our model, shown against the market and honest about its record. Not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).