MLB NRFI / YRFI predictions — Thursday, June 25, 2026
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) is a top-of-the-order-vs-the-starter bet — only the first three or four hitters come up. We project each side's 1st-inning runs from its leadoff hitters' matchup with the opposing starter, then set our NRFI probability and fair odds against the market and grade it in the open. Across 206 graded games our first-inning call has been right 48% of the time (NRFI has hit 48% of games). It's a hard, efficiently-priced market, so we treat this as transparency — no plays until a first-inning lean earns a sustained edge.
NRFI = no run scores in the 1st inning · YRFI = a run does. Our NRFI% is the model's chance of a scoreless 1st; the gold ▲/▼ is the side we favor vs the book — informational, not a play.
KCKansas City Royals
TBTampa Bay Rays
SEASeattle Mariners
PITPittsburgh Pirates
ATHAthletics
SFSan Francisco Giants
HOUHouston Astros
DETDetroit Tigers
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies
WSHWashington Nationals
TEXTexas Rangers
TORToronto Blue Jays
CHCChicago Cubs
NYMNew York Mets
NYYNew York Yankees
BOSBoston Red Sox
AZArizona Diamondbacks
STLSt. Louis CardinalsOur NRFI% = the model's chance no run scores in the 1st inning (either team), from each side's top of the order vs the opposing starter. Fair = that as no-vig odds. Mkt NRFI = the book's Under-0.5 line. The gold badge is the side we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade the first-inning model against the actual result, in the open. The engine keys on each starter's first-inning run-prevention (many arms carry “first-inning jitters” their full-game line hides), scaled by the top of the order it faces. On the full slate NRFI is efficiently priced — but on our strong leans (where we diverge from the book by ≥8%, the ★ picks) it's graded a real edge. Emerging, not proven — the sample is thin — so we mark them, we don't hard-sell them.
NRFI is a heavily-bet, sharply-priced market, so on the full slate we grade about break-even — no edge in the marginal leans. The edge lives in the tail: when the model's first-inning read diverges from the book by ≥8% (the ★ leans), it's beaten the line in our backtest, and that held up out-of-sample. It's a thin, early edge on a small sample — so we surface the ★ picks and grade them honestly forward before we'd ever call them locks.