MLB NRFI / YRFI predictions — Thursday, July 2, 2026
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) is a top-of-the-order-vs-the-starter bet — only the first three or four hitters come up. We project each side's 1st-inning runs from its leadoff hitters' matchup with the opposing starter, then set our NRFI probability and fair odds against the market and grade it in the open. Across 293 graded games our first-inning call has been right 49% of the time (NRFI has hit 47% of games). It's a hard, efficiently-priced market, so we treat this as transparency — no plays until a first-inning lean earns a sustained edge.
NRFI = no run scores in the 1st inning · YRFI = a run does. Our NRFI% is the model's chance of a scoreless 1st; the gold ▲/▼ is the side we favor vs the book — informational, not a play.
PITPittsburgh Pirates
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies
CINCincinnati Reds
MILMilwaukee Brewers
MIAMiami Marlins
COLColorado Rockies
CWSChicago White Sox
CLECleveland Guardians
STLSt. Louis Cardinals
ATLAtlanta Braves
TBTampa Bay Rays
KCKansas City Royals
DETDetroit Tigers
TEXTexas Rangers
LAALos Angeles Angels
SEASeattle Mariners
SDSan Diego Padres
LADLos Angeles DodgersOur NRFI% = the model's chance no run scores in the 1st inning (either team), from each side's top of the order vs the opposing starter. Fair = that as no-vig odds. Mkt NRFI = the book's Under-0.5 line. The gold badge is the side we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade the first-inning model against the actual result, in the open. The engine keys on each starter's first-inning run-prevention (many arms carry “first-inning jitters” their full-game line hides), scaled by the top of the order it faces. On the full slate NRFI is efficiently priced — but on our strong leans (where we diverge from the book by ≥8%, the ★ picks) it's graded a real edge. Emerging, not proven — the sample is thin — so we mark them, we don't hard-sell them.
NRFI is a heavily-bet, sharply-priced market, so on the full slate we grade about break-even — no edge in the marginal leans. The edge lives in the tail: when the model's first-inning read diverges from the book by ≥8% (the ★ leans), it's beaten the line in our backtest, and that held up out-of-sample. It's a thin, early edge on a small sample — so we surface the ★ picks and grade them honestly forward before we'd ever call them locks.