Best MLB earned runs matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Monday, June 29, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 24 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.3 BF
Expected batters faced9.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection0.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)9.4%1.3
2. Travis Bazzana (L)9.8%1.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)10.3%1.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)9.2%1.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%1.0
6. Brayan Rocchio (R)10.3%1.0
7. Cooper Ingle (L)11.7%1.0
8. Gabriel Arias (R)8.9%1.0
9. Austin Hedges (R)10.2%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB7.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Chapman (R)12.0%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)9.8%3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R)12.9%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)9.3%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)12.7%3.0
6. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.4
7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)10.8%2.0
8. Eric Haase (R)10.0%2.0
9. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.5%
vs RHB5.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)13.3%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.3%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.1%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)12.1%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)13.7%2.8
6. Tommy Edman (R)11.2%2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)10.3%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (R)10.6%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.1%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)12.6%3.0
3. Corey Seager (L)10.6%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.1%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)12.3%3.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)10.4%2.7
7. Evan Carter (L)10.9%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)10.5%2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L)12.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)10.5%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)13.4%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)16.0%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)10.2%2.5
7. Jacob Young (R)11.9%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)12.4%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB12.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.4 BF
Expected batters faced19.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)9.3%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)10.6%2.4
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.9%2.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.4%2.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)11.8%2.0
6. Ernie Clement (R)13.2%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)11.5%2.0
8. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)11.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)12.7%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)13.7%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)12.6%3.0
4. Eric Wagaman (R)10.4%3.0
5. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.1%3.0
6. Mark Vientos (R)10.0%2.7
7. Tyrone Taylor (R)9.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)9.8%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.5%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.3%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)13.3%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)9.2%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)12.8%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)7.7%2.8
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)10.1%2.0
7. Miguel Andujar (R)8.9%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)10.6%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (R)11.5%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)12.0%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)11.3%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.8%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)13.1%2.1
6. Noelvi Marte (R)13.2%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.4%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)10.3%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.8 BF
Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)15.5%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)16.1%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L)11.0%2.8
4. Cody Bellinger (L)13.0%2.0
5. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
6. Amed Rosario (R)12.9%2.0
7. Oswaldo Cabrera (L)15.9%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)11.3%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB15.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.8 BF
Expected batters faced17.8
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.0%2.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.5%2.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)9.9%2.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)13.1%2.0
5. Cal Raleigh (L)10.9%2.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.4%2.0
7. Colt Emerson (L)11.4%2.0
8. Mitch Garver (R)12.3%2.0
9. Victor Robles (R)9.9%1.8
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)12.3%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)12.9%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)10.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)14.2%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.5%3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)12.4%2.1
7. Coby Mayo (R)9.5%2.0
8. Colton Cowser (L)12.9%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)13.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.4%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.3 BF
Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nate Eaton (R)13.6%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.4%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.8%2.3
5. Romy Gonzalez (R)11.5%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)13.0%2.0
7. Anthony Seigler (L)12.7%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)9.3%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)13.7%3.0
2. Joey Meneses (R)10.1%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)14.1%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)11.8%2.5
5. Colby Thomas (R)11.6%2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)12.8%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)10.9%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.9%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.8%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)13.9%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)10.2%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.4%2.6
6. Pavin Smith (L)9.8%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)10.1%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.8%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)15.0%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)10.9%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.2%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)12.5%3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)12.2%3.0
6. Wade Meckler (L)12.1%3.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)8.5%2.3
8. Josh Lowe (L)10.2%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)10.3%3.0
2. Colt Keith (L)13.5%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)9.4%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)10.9%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)13.0%3.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)11.9%3.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)10.6%2.0
8. James Outman (L)14.0%2.0
9. Matt Vierling (R)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.2%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)13.9%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)15.1%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)18.3%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)10.7%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)16.9%3.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)13.5%3.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)13.2%2.5
8. Derek Hill (R)15.3%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)7.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.6%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)15.2%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)15.8%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)12.6%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)9.9%3.0
5. Brooks Lee (L)14.8%3.0
6. Luke Keaschall (R)14.5%2.7
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)15.7%2.0
8. Austin Martin (R)11.0%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)13.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.0%
vs RHB11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)13.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.3%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)12.3%2.8
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.3%2.0
6. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)11.4%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)10.6%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.7%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)15.1%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.3%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.1%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)10.9%3.0
5. Joey Loperfido (L)12.4%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)9.8%3.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)12.1%2.8
8. Jake Meyers (R)11.1%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.0%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.4%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.5%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)13.2%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)10.6%3.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)13.2%2.5
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.0%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)12.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload26.0 BF
Expected batters faced26.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (L)13.5%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)12.1%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)13.9%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)12.2%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%3.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)14.5%3.0
7. Troy Johnston (L)11.6%3.0
8. Braxton Fulford (R)15.8%3.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.3 BF
Expected batters faced25.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.5%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)12.9%3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)12.8%3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.2%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)12.0%3.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)11.9%3.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.9%2.3
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No ER recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026
Tyler Alexander (TEX) is the top earned runs spot on the Monday, June 29, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.7 ER, with Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tyler Alexander
Tyler Alexander (TEX) tops the Monday, June 29, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.7 ER vs CLE. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) (57) — about 1.9 ER vs SF.
Gage Jump (ATH) (51) — about 2.0 ER vs LAD.
Parker Messick (CLE) (48) — about 2.1 ER vs TEX.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) (46) — about 2.2 ER vs WSH.
Sean Manaea (NYM) (43) — about 2.3 ER vs TOR.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Monday, June 29, 2026)?
Tyler Alexander (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 0.7 ER against CLE.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Monday, June 29, 2026: Tyler Alexander (~0.7 ER), Eduardo Rodriguez (~1.9 ER), Gage Jump (~2.0 ER), Parker Messick (~2.1 ER), Ranger Suarez (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
