Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, June 27, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.4 BF
Expected batters faced9.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)13.4%1.4
2. Andy Pages (R)11.2%1.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.0%1.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)12.0%1.0
5. Max Muncy (L)12.6%1.0
6. Tommy Edman (R)11.3%1.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)10.7%1.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.0%1.0
9. Alex Freeland (R)10.8%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
We project 1.0 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.8%
vs RHB12.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.1 BF
Expected batters faced9.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection0.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)12.4%1.1
2. Juan Soto (L)12.6%1.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)13.8%1.0
4. Francisco Lindor (R)11.3%1.0
5. Jared Young (L)10.3%1.0
6. Mark Vientos (R)12.5%1.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)9.6%1.0
8. Brett Baty (L)11.8%1.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.5%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+190-275
FANFanatics+185-270
We project 0.9 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.8%
vs RHB13.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.3 BF
Expected batters faced17.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)15.2%2.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)11.2%2.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.8%2.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%2.0
5. Wade Meckler (L)12.4%2.0
6. Jo Adell (R)12.0%2.0
7. Donovan Walton (L)12.8%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.0%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)9.6%1.3
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-172+129
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.4%
vs RHB15.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.6 BF
Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.4%1.6
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.5%1.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)14.1%1.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%1.0
5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)10.5%1.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)10.2%1.0
7. Max Kepler (L)11.4%1.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%1.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+175-250
FANFanatics+155-225
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB13.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.2 BF
Expected batters faced11.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)11.3%2.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.5%2.0
3. Daulton Varsho (L)12.8%1.2
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.9%1.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)8.1%1.0
6. Sean Keys (L)11.7%1.0
7. Ernie Clement (R)10.7%1.0
8. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%1.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)10.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB6.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)10.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.4%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)12.4%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.4%2.5
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)10.2%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)13.2%2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-159+119
We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)14.2%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)10.3%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)12.1%3.0
4. Coby Mayo (R)15.4%3.0
5. Tyler O'Neill (R)12.5%3.0
6. Blaze Alexander (R)10.0%2.0
7. Leody Taveras (R)7.7%2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)10.8%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)9.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-108-122
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)11.4%3.0
2. Travis Bazzana (L)14.0%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)10.2%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.4%3.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L)9.7%2.9
6. Cooper Ingle (L)11.7%2.0
7. Gabriel Arias (R)9.4%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)10.3%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)14.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
DKDraftKings-161+121
We project 2.2 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)12.9%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)13.0%3.0
3. Corey Seager (L)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.7%3.0
5. Josh Jung (R)10.5%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)12.0%2.4
7. Jarred Kelenic (L)11.7%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-144+108
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.0%3.0
2. Matt Shaw (R)13.8%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)12.3%2.7
5. Michael Busch (L)9.2%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)13.5%2.0
7. Ian Happ (R)13.3%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)15.2%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-140+106
We project 2.2 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.1%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)10.6%3.0
2. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jose Altuve (R)13.0%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.8%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)11.6%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)11.1%3.0
7. Jake Meyers (R)11.1%2.1
8. Brice Matthews (R)10.8%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings-102-130
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)10.3%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.1%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.2%3.0
4. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.6%3.0
5. Owen Caissie (L)12.3%2.7
6. Jakob Marsee (L)10.2%2.0
7. Griffin Conine (L)11.5%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)9.9%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+102-135
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB12.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.0 BF
Expected batters faced17.0
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.7%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.0%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)13.2%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)10.3%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)14.5%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.3%2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)12.6%2.0
8. Jimmy Crooks (L)8.0%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)13.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-110-121
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.4 BF
Expected batters faced19.4
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.5%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)12.5%2.4
3. Hunter Goodman (R)12.9%2.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)12.9%2.0
5. Willi Castro (L)14.2%2.0
6. Tyler Freeman (R)12.5%2.0
7. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)14.5%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+114-151
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)9.9%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.9%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)10.8%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.5%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.4%2.8
6. Caleb Durbin (R)13.1%2.0
7. Anthony Seigler (L)11.7%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)8.9%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+109-144
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.4%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)12.7%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)15.6%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)12.3%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)13.8%3.0
5. Dominic Smith (L)12.4%3.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.4%3.0
7. Austin Riley (R)10.2%2.9
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.3%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+115-153
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB16.5%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)14.1%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)11.9%2.9
3. JJ Bleday (L)12.8%2.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.4%2.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.4%2.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)10.7%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)10.7%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)9.6%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
DKDraftKings-146+110
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)15.3%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)10.8%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)10.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)12.0%2.9
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)10.3%2.0
6. José Caballero (R)14.7%2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)13.4%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)11.8%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)8.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
DKDraftKings+130-173
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.4%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)13.0%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)13.1%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)11.5%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)12.3%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.3%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.8%3.0
7. Miguel Andujar (R)10.9%2.6
8. Will Wagner (L)11.1%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-136+102
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.2%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.3%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.4%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)13.5%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)13.2%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)10.4%2.3
6. Cal Raleigh (L)11.2%2.0
7. Luke Raley (L)11.6%2.0
8. Cole Young (L)11.9%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-105-126
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)16.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)14.1%3.0
3. José Tena (L)11.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)14.9%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)12.2%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)12.1%2.9
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)12.0%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.5%2.0
9. Drew Millas (L)11.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-110-120
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)13.6%3.0
2. Colt Keith (L)12.3%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)12.4%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.0%2.6
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)10.8%2.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)9.0%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)9.1%2.0
8. James Outman (L)11.8%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-110-121
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)12.9%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)13.7%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)13.7%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)13.5%2.8
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.0%2.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)12.1%2.0
7. Taylor Walls (L)13.7%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)12.3%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-104-127
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.3%
vs RHB11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.8 BF
Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)14.1%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)13.6%2.8
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)13.4%2.0
5. Gary Sánchez (R)13.5%2.0
6. Blake Perkins (R)12.0%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.2%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)9.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.0%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)13.4%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.6%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.8%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)12.3%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)14.3%3.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)12.6%2.2
9. Drew Romo (L)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
DKDraftKings-105-126
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)14.3%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)13.6%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)14.6%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)11.1%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)11.1%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)9.1%2.5
7. John Rave (L)12.1%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)13.1%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+109-145
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB8.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)13.4%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)15.1%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)17.8%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)17.0%2.5
5. Bryson Stott (L)13.3%2.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)13.2%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)7.6%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L)7.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-153+115
We project 2.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)14.1%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)13.3%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)14.3%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)10.8%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (R)11.1%3.0
6. Colby Thomas (R)11.7%2.9
7. Max Muncy (R)12.4%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.1%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
DKDraftKings+107-142
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB13.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)12.5%3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R)11.3%3.0
3. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.2%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)12.0%3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.1%3.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)9.8%2.7
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.3%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
DKDraftKings-121-109
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB13.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)17.1%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)13.4%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)13.3%3.0
5. Victor Caratini (L)11.9%2.3
6. Royce Lewis (R)10.8%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (L)14.7%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)9.6%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)14.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 3.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
23 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Chase BurnsP
CIN@PIT· proj #6
5ERFinal
T1
Andre PallanteP
STLvsMIA· proj #12
5ERFinal
T1
Bryce ElderP
ATL@SF· proj #29
5ERFinal
4
Logan GilbertP
SEA@CLE· proj #8
4ERFinal
T4
Dylan CeaseP
TORvsTEX· proj #9
4ERFinal
T4
Framber ValdezP
DETvsHOU· proj #11
4ERFinal
T4
Gerrit ColeP
NYY@BOS· proj #15
4ERFinal
T4
Kai-Wei TengP
HOU@DET· proj #22
4ERFinal
T4
Jose CabreraP
AZ@TB· proj #23
4ERFinal
10
Mike ParedesP
MINvsCOL· proj #14
3ERFinal
T10
Jared JonesP
PITvsCIN· proj #17
3ERFinal
12
Jack PerkinsP
ATH@LAA· proj #3
2ERFinal
T12
Kyle HarrisonP
MILvsCHC· proj #10
2ERFinal
T12
Yoshinobu YamamotoP
LAD@SD· proj #19
2ERFinal
T12
Brandon YoungP
BALvsWSH· proj #21
2ERFinal
T12
David PetersonP
CHC@MIL· proj #24
2ERFinal
T12
Christian ScottP
NYMvsPHI· proj #27
2ERFinal
T12
Reid DetmersP
LAAvsATH· proj #28
2ERFinal
T12
Michael LorenzenP
COL@MIN· proj #30
2ERFinal
20
Kyle HartP
SDvsLAD· proj #1
1ERFinal
T20
Cole SulserP
TBvsAZ· proj #4
1ERFinal
T20
Jake BennettP
BOSvsNYY· proj #18
1ERFinal
T20
Michael WachaP
KC@CWS· proj #25
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/475%
season 52%+23 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
8/989%
season 52%+37 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
12/1963%
season building
Top 50
16/2857%
season building
Full slate
16/2857%
season 49%+8 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Kyle Hart (SD) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, June 27, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Tim Mayza (PHI) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Kyle Hart
Kyle Hart (SD) tops the Saturday, June 27, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs LAD. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Tim Mayza (PHI) (100) — about 0.9 ER vs NYM.
Jack Perkins (ATH) (100) — about 2.4 ER vs LAA.
Cole Sulser (TB) (97) — about 1.1 ER vs AZ.
Cal Quantrill (TEX) (80) — about 1.4 ER vs TOR.
Chase Burns (CIN) (60) — about 1.9 ER vs PIT.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.9 ER. Kyle Hart finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?
Kyle Hart (SD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against LAD.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, June 27, 2026: Kyle Hart (~1.0 ER), Tim Mayza (~0.9 ER), Jack Perkins (~2.4 ER), Cole Sulser (~1.1 ER), Cal Quantrill (~1.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
