Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 26 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.1 BF
Expected batters faced10.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)12.2%2.0
2. Juan Soto (L)13.2%1.1
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.8%1.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)14.0%1.0
5. Jared Young (L)12.2%1.0
6. A.J. Ewing (L)10.4%1.0
7. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.4%1.0
8. Brett Baty (L)9.7%1.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)9.9%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.8 BF
Expected batters faced11.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)13.8%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.1%2.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)10.6%1.8
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)14.2%1.0
5. José Fermín (R)10.9%1.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.4%1.0
7. Lars Nootbaar (L)13.5%1.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%1.0
9. Nathan Church (L)12.9%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB8.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.9 BF
Expected batters faced17.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)11.7%2.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)13.1%2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)14.0%2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)13.7%2.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)12.0%2.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R)12.1%2.0
7. Caleb Durbin (R)10.6%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)13.2%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)11.0%1.9
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB7.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)13.2%3.0
2. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)15.3%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)9.9%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)12.9%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)13.7%2.5
7. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Billy Cook (R)14.2%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.2 BF
Expected batters faced18.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (R)12.1%2.2
2. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%2.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)10.9%2.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.8%2.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.0%2.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)12.5%2.0
7. Edwin Arroyo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)12.9%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.0%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)13.0%3.0
3. Corey Seager (L)10.9%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)12.4%2.9
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)10.5%2.0
6. Evan Carter (L)13.3%2.0
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.4%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)10.5%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.0%3.0
2. Amed Rosario (R)13.4%3.0
3. Ben Rice (L)15.5%3.0
4. Jasson Domínguez (L)9.9%3.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R)12.6%3.0
6. José Caballero (R)10.0%2.8
7. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
8. Max Schuemann (R)13.8%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)12.3%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)14.1%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)11.4%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)10.8%2.8
5. Michael Massey (L)12.1%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)10.6%2.0
7. John Rave (L)12.9%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)11.0%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (R)12.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.4%
vs RHB9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.3%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)11.7%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)13.9%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)12.3%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%3.0
6. Tyler Freeman (R)12.1%3.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)10.6%2.3
8. Kyle Karros (R)13.6%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.5%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)13.5%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.1%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)13.3%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)10.4%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)9.6%2.3
7. Sal Frelick (L)10.4%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)9.0%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)12.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.5%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)9.1%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)11.2%3.0
3. Kyle Manzardo (L)9.2%3.0
4. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%3.0
5. Cooper Ingle (L)11.7%2.6
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)12.6%2.0
7. Gabriel Arias (R)8.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)11.3%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.9%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.9%3.0
2. Andrés Chaparro (R)13.6%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)13.2%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.5%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)15.5%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)11.6%3.0
7. Daylen Lile (L)10.3%2.3
8. Nasim Nuñez (R)13.1%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.1%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)12.8%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.2%3.0
4. Miguel Andujar (R)10.3%3.0
5. Ty France (R)11.6%3.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%2.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.3%2.0
8. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)12.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.3%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)11.4%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.2%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)10.8%3.0
6. Taylor Trammell (L)12.4%2.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R)9.5%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)11.5%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.9%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.2%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.3%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)13.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.1%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)7.9%2.5
6. Max Kepler (L)10.3%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)10.5%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)9.4%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)13.4%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)14.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)13.0%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)11.8%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.6%3.0
6. Eli White (R)12.6%2.3
7. Austin Riley (R)10.3%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)11.1%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)16.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.1%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.0%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.3%3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)14.0%2.7
5. Michael Busch (L)10.0%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)10.8%2.0
7. Ian Happ (L)15.1%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)14.2%2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)13.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.3%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)14.1%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.8%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)12.8%3.0
5. Colt Keith (L)12.5%3.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.5%2.8
7. Zach McKinstry (L)9.4%2.0
8. James Outman (L)10.8%2.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)8.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)15.2%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)15.8%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)17.9%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)16.5%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.0%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)13.0%2.4
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)12.5%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)8.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.2%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.6 BF
Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)14.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)12.8%2.6
4. Josh Bell (L)14.0%2.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)10.9%2.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)12.1%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)15.1%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)10.2%2.0
9. Austin Martin (R)11.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB13.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)9.9%3.0
2. Taylor Ward (R)13.6%3.0
3. Dylan Beavers (L)11.8%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.5
5. Samuel Basallo (L)9.0%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)7.5%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)10.0%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)9.4%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)17.4%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)13.9%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.0%3.0
5. Teoscar Hernández (R)12.8%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)13.8%2.8
7. Max Muncy (L)13.8%2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R)10.1%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.0%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)13.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.5%3.0
3. Alejandro Kirk (R)8.8%3.0
4. Sean Keys (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)10.1%3.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)12.3%2.5
7. Luis Urías (R)11.8%2.0
8. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB12.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.9%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)13.5%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.2%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)10.8%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)11.7%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)10.7%2.1
7. Ben Williamson (R)11.4%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)13.9%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB15.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)9.9%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)10.3%3.0
3. Griffin Conine (L)12.5%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)12.4%3.0
5. Jakob Marsee (L)13.3%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)10.2%3.0
7. Javier Sanoja (R)10.3%2.3
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Leo Jiménez (R)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.7%
vs RHB15.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Chapman (R)9.5%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)13.3%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)13.2%3.0
5. Heliot Ramos (R)11.7%3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)12.2%3.0
7. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.2
8. Eric Haase (R)13.1%2.0
9. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No ER recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Braydon Fisher (TOR) is the top earned runs spot on the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER, with Reynaldo López (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher (TOR) tops the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER vs NYM. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Reynaldo López (ATL) (98) — about 1.2 ER vs STL.
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) (74) — about 1.9 ER vs BOS.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) (70) — about 2.0 ER vs PIT.
Shane Drohan (MIL) (67) — about 2.0 ER vs CIN.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) (64) — about 2.1 ER vs TEX.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?
Braydon Fisher (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER against NYM.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Wednesday, July 1, 2026: Braydon Fisher (~1.2 ER), Reynaldo López (~1.2 ER), Andrew Alvarez (~1.9 ER), Zack Wheeler (~2.0 ER), Shane Drohan (~2.0 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
