Last scored matchup
Walbert isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 10 days ago, away at Seattle Mariners on Sunday, September 27, 2026. This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
27 starts, 9-11, 2.97 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 148.1 innings. He's struck out 142 over that span, against 68 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws right-handed
Walbert throws right-handed, which is the ordinary case and means fewer wild swings in the lineup he faces. Opposing managers aren't restacking against him the way they would a left-hander, so his projection moves more on the quality of the lineup than on its handedness. What does move it: how deep he's been going lately, and whether the lineup in front of him strikes out.
His last 5 starts
Walbert has 30 strikeouts in 32.0 innings across his last 5 starts, a 8.4 K/9, with a 3.09 ERA over that stretch and 4 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Strikeouts and control
Walbert has 142 strikeouts and 68 walks in 148.3 innings this season — 8.6 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9, a 2.1-to-1 ratio. That walk rate is the risk in every projection on him. Free passes run up pitch counts, and a short outing caps the strikeout and outs numbers no matter how favourable the lineup looks. His floor is genuinely lower than his stuff suggests.
What his floor looks like
Walbert has made 29 starts this season, averaging 5.1 innings with a 2.97 ERA across them. In the 12 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 9 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
How long he goes
Walbert is averaging 5.8 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 8.0 and about 92 pitches a night. He's going deep enough that the outs and strikeout lines stay live into the seventh, which is where most of the value on those boards sits. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
A long gap since his last start
Walbert hasn't started in 14 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
His best start in the log
Walbert's high-water mark was Thursday, September 17, 2026 against MIN: 9 strikeouts over 7.0 innings, 0 earned runs. One start doesn't set a projection — the model works off the blend of his recent work against the specific lineup in front of him — but it does show the ceiling when the matchup lines up.
How the model reads him
Every arm on the slate goes through the same math, Walbert included. Opposing lineup, handedness, expected batters faced, park, weather — weighted, combined, and normalized 0–100. We keep the weighting to ourselves and re-tune it weekly on real results. What we don't keep is the record: every projection here is graded against the box score at the line the market offered.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes. For Walbert specifically, he's coming off a 14-day gap.