Last scored matchup
Connor isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 11 days ago, at home against Texas Rangers on Sunday, September 27, 2026. This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
22 starts, 6-7, 4.87 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 125.2 innings. He's struck out 128 over that span, against 44 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws left-handed
Connor is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.
His last 5 starts
Connor has 22 strikeouts in 26.7 innings across his last 5 starts, a 7.4 K/9, with a 2.36 ERA over that stretch and 5 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Strikeouts and control
Connor has 128 strikeouts and 44 walks in 125.7 innings this season — 9.2 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9, a 2.9-to-1 ratio. That's around league-typical control — enough to work deep when the lineup cooperates, not enough to bail him out of a bad matchup.
What his floor looks like
Connor has made 24 starts this season, averaging 5.2 innings with a 4.87 ERA across them. In the 12 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 11 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
How long he goes
Connor is averaging 5.4 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 7.0 and about 82 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
A long gap since his last start
Connor hasn't started in 15 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
His best start in the log
Connor's high-water mark was Friday, September 18, 2026 at LAA: 8 strikeouts over 7.0 innings, 0 earned runs. One start doesn't set a projection — the model works off the blend of his recent work against the specific lineup in front of him — but it does show the ceiling when the matchup lines up.
How the model reads him
Connor's score comes from the matchup, not his reputation. The model weighs how the opposing lineup handles his handedness, how many batters he's likely to face given recent workload, the park, and the weather — then normalizes 0–100 against every other arm on the slate. How those factors are weighted is our own, and it re-tunes weekly against real outcomes. We publish the score and grade it in public; that's the half you can check.
What we'd flag
Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample. For Connor specifically, he's coming off a 15-day gap.