Best MLB outs recorded matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, June 19, 2026 slate — ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP). Results show how each call played out.
How the model did — Friday, June 19, 2026
Our top 5 starts went 0/4 (0%) on our outs over/under, against 54% on the season.
Top 5
0/40%
season 54%
Top 10
3/838%
season 51%
Full slate
7/2429%
season 49%
Top call Cam Schlittler came through. Jacob Misiorowski didn't.
Each starting pitcher below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average starting pitcher in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →
PROJ1 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitchⓘ
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
29 with a outsLive count — updates as games play
1
Kyle FreelandP
COLvsPIT
22outsFinal
Proj 15.0 outs, #25
2
Ranger SuarezP
BOS@SEA
20outsFinal
Proj 16.4 outs, #12
3
Jacob MisiorowskiP
MIL@ATL
18outsFinal
Proj 19.4 outs, #2
T3
Cam SchlittlerP
NYYvsCIN
18outsFinal
Proj 17.6 outs, #6
T3
Jacob deGromP
TEXvsSD
18outsFinal
Proj 17.0 outs, #10
T3
Landen RouppP
SF@MIA
18outsFinal
Proj 15.3 outs, #13
T3
Ben BrownP
CHCvsTOR
18outsFinal
Proj 14.8 outs, #16
T3
Martín PérezP
ATLvsMIL
18outsFinal
Proj 13.8 outs, #17
T3
Seth LugoP
KCvsSTL
18outsFinal
Proj 16.0 outs, #20
T3
Connor PrielippP
MIN@AZ
18outsFinal
Proj 15.7 outs, #22
T3
Bubba ChandlerP
PIT@COL
18outsFinal
Proj 15.3 outs, #24
T3
Tatsuya ImaiP
HOUvsCLE
18outsFinal
Proj 13.4 outs, #28
13
Tarik SkubalP
DETvsCWS
17outsFinal
Proj 17.7 outs, #5
T13
Roki SasakiP
LADvsBAL
17outsFinal
Proj 16.8 outs, #7
15
Tanner BibeeP
CLE@HOU
16outsFinal
Proj 17.9 outs, #4
T15
Rhett LowderP
CIN@NYY
16outsFinal
Proj 14.4 outs, #14
17
Bryce MillerP
SEAvsBOS
15outsFinal
Proj 17.3 outs, #1
T17
Michael McGreevyP
STL@KC
15outsFinal
Proj 16.9 outs, #11
T17
José SorianoP
LAA@ATH
15outsFinal
Proj 16.7 outs, #15
T17
Griffin JaxP
TBvsWSH
15outsFinal
Proj 13.6 outs, #18
T17
Trey GibsonP
BAL@LAD
15outsFinal
Proj 14.4 outs, #27
22
Erick FeddeP
CWS@DET
14outsFinal
Proj 13.6 outs, #19
23
Jeffrey SpringsP
ATHvsLAA
11outsFinal
Proj 15.6 outs, #23
24
Randy VásquezP
SD@TEX
10outsFinal
Proj 15.7 outs, #21
25
Kevin GausmanP
TOR@CHC
6outsFinal
Proj 17.3 outs, #8
T25
PJ PoulinP
WSH@TB
6outsFinal
Proj 6.9 outs, #29
27
Lake BacharP
MIAvsSF
4outsFinal
Proj 8.8 outs, #26
T27
Brandon EisertP
CWS@DET
4outsFinal
Proj 6.7 outs, #30
29
Michael SorokaP
AZvsMIN
3outsFinal
Proj 18.4 outs, #3
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked starts that hit our outs over/under, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
0/40%
season 54%-54 pts-3% ROI
Top 10
3/838%
season 51%-13 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
5/1729%
season building
Top 50
7/2429%
season building
Full slate
7/2429%
season 49%-20 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — our outs over/under. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Outs Recorded Matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026
Bryce Miller (SEA) leads the Friday, June 19, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 17.3 outs is today's longest projected leash. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is next at 100. Outs are the quiet stat — every DK point and every run total leans on how deep the starter goes, and this board ranks the whole slate by exactly that.
Top spot: Bryce Miller
Bryce Miller (SEA) projects for the deepest start on the slate — about 17.3 outs against BOS. Depth is earned two ways: efficiency against this specific lineup, and a manager with reasons to let him keep the ball.
The rest of the top of the board
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) (100) — about 19.4 outs vs ATL.
Michael Soroka (AZ) (100) — about 18.4 outs vs MIN.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) (91) — about 17.9 outs vs HOU.
Tarik Skubal (DET) (86) — about 17.7 outs vs CWS.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (85) — about 17.6 outs vs CIN.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 14.2 outs. Bryce Miller finished with 15. Every projection is graded against the box score.
Why outs are the quiet DFS stat
Three outs per inning, so 18 outs is six innings and 21 is seven — and the difference between those two numbers is bigger than it looks. On DraftKings, innings pay more than anything except strikeouts, and a start that ends in the fifth caps everything else the arm was building. Depth also decides who gets the win bonus and how much bullpen variance leaks into the run total. What shortens a leash rarely shows up in a season ERA: a lineup that grinds pitch counts, a thin bullpen the manager is protecting, a pitch-limited arm coming off a layoff. That's what this board is scoring.
How to read the outs recorded board
Every starter gets a 0–100 score for how deep tonight sets up — his pitch efficiency against this lineup's patience, blended with how long his club has actually let him work. The projected outs number beside it is the honest translation: 15 is five innings, 18 is six, 21 is seven. Where a book posts an outs line, we show it with our lean, and every projection grades against the box score.
The Outs Recorded board projects how deep a starter goes — his projected outs. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His workload and recent pitch counts.
The matchup difficulty.
The game script.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Transparency board, and a key input to the team run model (how many innings the starter covers vs the bullpen).
How to use it
Useful for DFS (a starter who goes deep banks more) and as context; not a standalone edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Which pitcher has the best outs recorded matchup today (Friday, June 19, 2026)?
Bryce Miller (SEA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 17.3 outs against BOS.
What are the best pitcher outs (IP) props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, June 19, 2026: Bryce Miller (~17.3 outs), Jacob Misiorowski (~19.4 outs), Michael Soroka (~18.4 outs), Tanner Bibee (~17.9 outs), Tarik Skubal (~17.7 outs). The full board ranks every starter.
What does 18.5 outs mean on a pitching line?
Six-and-a-third innings — outs lines convert at three per inning, so over 18.5 needs the starter to record at least one out in the seventh. It's the cleanest way books price start length.
Why do projected outs matter for DFS?
DraftKings pays 2.25 points per inning, so two extra innings is worth more than a strikeout — and deep starts are where win bonuses live. A K-heavy arm with a short leash often scores less than a moderate arm who works seven.
How is the outs recorded score calculated?
Ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected outs (IP) number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best outs (IP) spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
