Best MLB outs recorded matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, June 20, 2026 slate — ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP). Results show how each call played out.
How the model did — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Our top 5 starts went 2/4 (50%) on our outs over/under, against 54% on the season.
Top 5
2/450%
season 54%
Top 10
3/933%
season 50%
Full slate
12/2646%
season 49%
Top call Troy Melton came through. Cristopher Sánchez didn't.
Each starting pitcher below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average starting pitcher in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →
PROJ1 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitchⓘ
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
27 with a outsLive count — updates as games play
1
Joey CantilloP
CLE@HOU
24outsFinal
Proj 14.9 outs, #25
2
Trevor RogersP
BAL@LAD
21outsFinal
Proj 14.8 outs, #26
3
Kyle HarrisonP
MIL@ATL
19outsFinal
Proj 16.1 outs, #13
4
Cristopher SánchezP
PHIvsNYM
18outsFinal
Proj 20.6 outs, #1
T4
Yoshinobu YamamotoP
LADvsBAL
18outsFinal
Proj 19.1 outs, #2
T4
Troy MeltonP
DETvsCWS
18outsFinal
Proj 18.3 outs, #4
T4
Paul SkenesP
PIT@COL
18outsFinal
Proj 17.7 outs, #8
T4
Connelly EarlyP
BOS@SEA
18outsFinal
Proj 16.6 outs, #20
T4
Spencer ArrighettiP
HOUvsCLE
18outsFinal
Proj 16.9 outs, #22
T4
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COLvsPIT
18outsFinal
Proj 16.0 outs, #24
11
Chris SaleP
ATLvsMIL
17outsFinal
Proj 18.1 outs, #5
T11
Will WarrenP
NYYvsCIN
17outsFinal
Proj 15.9 outs, #14
13
J.T. GinnP
ATHvsLAA
16outsFinal
Proj 17.7 outs, #9
T13
Walker BuehlerP
SD@TEX
16outsFinal
Proj 16.2 outs, #12
T13
Colin ReaP
CHCvsTOR
16outsFinal
Proj 15.9 outs, #15
T13
Emerson HancockP
SEAvsBOS
16outsFinal
Proj 16.9 outs, #17
17
Max MeyerP
MIAvsSF
15outsFinal
Proj 17.7 outs, #6
T17
Andrew AbbottP
CIN@NYY
15outsFinal
Proj 16.9 outs, #7
T17
Walbert UreñaP
LAA@ATH
15outsFinal
Proj 17.2 outs, #16
T17
Taj BradleyP
MIN@AZ
15outsFinal
Proj 16.6 outs, #19
T17
Ian SeymourP
TBvsWSH
15outsFinal
Proj 9.1 outs, #27
22
Zac GallenP
AZvsMIN
12outsFinal
Proj 16.4 outs, #21
23
Patrick CorbinP
TOR@CHC
11outsFinal
Proj 14.6 outs, #18
24
Trevor McDonaldP
SF@MIA
9outsFinal
Proj 16.3 outs, #11
T24
Sean NewcombP
CWS@DET
9outsFinal
Proj 8.6 outs, #28
26
Cade CavalliP
WSH@TB
8outsFinal
Proj 16.6 outs, #10
T26
Freddy PeraltaP
NYM@PHI
8outsFinal
Proj 16.8 outs, #23
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked starts that hit our outs over/under, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/450%
season 54%-4 pts-3% ROI
Top 10
3/933%
season 50%-17 pts-7% ROI
Top 20
8/1942%
season building
Top 50
12/2646%
season building
Full slate
12/2646%
season 49%-3 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — our outs over/under. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Outs Recorded Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) leads the Saturday, June 20, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 20.6 outs is today's longest projected leash. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) is next at 100. Outs are the quiet stat — every DK point and every run total leans on how deep the starter goes, and this board ranks the whole slate by exactly that.
Top spot: Cristopher Sánchez
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) projects for the deepest start on the slate — about 20.6 outs against NYM. Depth is earned two ways: efficiency against this specific lineup, and a manager with reasons to let him keep the ball.
The rest of the top of the board
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) (100) — about 19.1 outs vs BAL.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) (91) — about 19.6 outs vs SD.
Troy Melton (DET) (80) — about 18.3 outs vs CWS.
Chris Sale (ATL) (78) — about 18.1 outs vs MIL.
Max Meyer (MIA) (75) — about 17.7 outs vs SF.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 15.9 outs. Cristopher Sánchez finished with 18. Every projection is graded against the box score.
Why outs are the quiet DFS stat
Three outs per inning, so 18 outs is six innings and 21 is seven — and the difference between those two numbers is bigger than it looks. On DraftKings, innings pay more than anything except strikeouts, and a start that ends in the fifth caps everything else the arm was building. Depth also decides who gets the win bonus and how much bullpen variance leaks into the run total. What shortens a leash rarely shows up in a season ERA: a lineup that grinds pitch counts, a thin bullpen the manager is protecting, a pitch-limited arm coming off a layoff. That's what this board is scoring.
How to read the outs recorded board
Every starter gets a 0–100 score for how deep tonight sets up — his pitch efficiency against this lineup's patience, blended with how long his club has actually let him work. The projected outs number beside it is the honest translation: 15 is five innings, 18 is six, 21 is seven. Where a book posts an outs line, we show it with our lean, and every projection grades against the box score.
The Outs Recorded board projects how deep a starter goes — his projected outs. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His workload and recent pitch counts.
The matchup difficulty.
The game script.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Transparency board, and a key input to the team run model (how many innings the starter covers vs the bullpen).
How to use it
Useful for DFS (a starter who goes deep banks more) and as context; not a standalone edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Which pitcher has the best outs recorded matchup today (Saturday, June 20, 2026)?
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 20.6 outs against NYM.
What are the best pitcher outs (IP) props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, June 20, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~20.6 outs), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~19.1 outs), Nathan Eovaldi (~19.6 outs), Troy Melton (~18.3 outs), Chris Sale (~18.1 outs). The full board ranks every starter.
What does 18.5 outs mean on a pitching line?
Six-and-a-third innings — outs lines convert at three per inning, so over 18.5 needs the starter to record at least one out in the seventh. It's the cleanest way books price start length.
Why do projected outs matter for DFS?
DraftKings pays 2.25 points per inning, so two extra innings is worth more than a strikeout — and deep starts are where win bonuses live. A K-heavy arm with a short leash often scores less than a moderate arm who works seven.
How is the outs recorded score calculated?
Ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected outs (IP) number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best outs (IP) spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
