Best MLB outs recorded matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 slate — ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP). Results show how each call played out.
How the model did — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Our top 5 starts went 1/5 (20%) on the mark, against 52% on the season.
Top 5
1/520%
season 52%
Top 10
3/1030%
season 51%
Full slate
13/2846%
season 50%
Top call MacKenzie Gore came through. Troy Melton didn't.
Share of our top-ranked starts that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/520%
season 52%-32 pts-6% ROI
Top 10
3/1030%
season 51%-21 pts-7% ROI
Top 20
8/2040%
season building
Top 50
13/2846%
season building
Full slate
13/2846%
season 50%-4 pts-8% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Outs Recorded Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Troy Melton (DET) is the top outs recorded spot on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 18.4 outs, with Logan Webb (SF) right behind. Every starter is ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Troy Melton
Troy Melton (DET) tops the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 18.4 outs vs ATH. His recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching.
The rest of the top of the board
Logan Webb (SF) (98) — about 18.1 outs vs TOR.
Foster Griffin (WSH) (93) — about 17.4 outs vs HOU.
George Kirby (SEA) (93) — about 17.3 outs vs MIA.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (93) — about 17.3 outs vs LAA.
Jake Bennett (BOS) (91) — about 17.1 outs vs CWS.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 18.4 outs. Troy Melton finished with 16. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the outs recorded board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. We project a outs (IP) count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best outs recorded matchup today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?
Troy Melton (DET) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 18.4 outs against ATH.
What are the best pitcher outs (IP) props today?
The top projected starts on Wednesday, July 8, 2026: Troy Melton (~18.4 outs), Logan Webb (~18.1 outs), Foster Griffin (~17.4 outs), George Kirby (~17.3 outs), MacKenzie Gore (~17.3 outs). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the outs recorded score calculated?
Ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected outs (IP) count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best outs (IP) spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
What the outs recorded board is
The Outs Recorded board projects how deep a starter goes — his projected outs. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His workload and recent pitch counts.
The matchup difficulty.
The game script.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Transparency board, and a key input to the team run model (how many innings the starter covers vs the bullpen).
How to use it
Useful for DFS (a starter who goes deep banks more) and as context; not a standalone edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
