Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026
Top runs spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Adrian Houser. The lefty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Adrian Houser has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Adrian Houser too — .400 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willy Adames (SF) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (92) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (92) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (83) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (83) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Lawrence Butler (ATH) (82) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (82) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jake McCarthy finished with 3 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.