Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Andrew Painter. The lefty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Andrew Painter has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Andrew Painter too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Willi Castro (COL) (99) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Jonah Cox (SF) (99) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Garrett Stubbs (PHI) (91) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (90) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (90) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (83) vs RHP Spencer Miles: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 99.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.