Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Spence. The lefty is scoring at .215 R/PA against righties this year — and .267 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 19% of his trips. And Mitch Spence has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Mitch Spence. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (89) vs RHP Kai-Wei Teng: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.304).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .149 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (83) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .148 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105), hot bat.
- Alex Bregman (CHC) (76) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .115 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.320).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (76) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an excellent bat at .166 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.120).
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (76) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.320), hot bat.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (75) vs RHP Mitch Spence: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.