Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top runs spot: Trea Turner
Trea Turner (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing LHP David Peterson. The righty is scoring at .151 R/PA against lefties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And David Peterson has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .273 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .208 in 24 career PA against David Peterson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.045).
- Willi Castro (COL) (100) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233), hitter's park.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (99) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (99) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .135 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (98) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (98) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .146 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
Platoon edges to target
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .151 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .212 against righties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Trea Turner finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.