Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top runs spot: Trea Turner
Trea Turner (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing LHP David Peterson. The righty is scoring at .151 R/PA against lefties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And David Peterson has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .273 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .208 in 24 career PA against David Peterson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.045).
- Willi Castro (COL) (100) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233), hitter's park.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (99) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (99) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .135 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (98) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (98) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .146 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
Platoon edges to target
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .151 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .212 against righties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Trea Turner finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays