Who has the best runs matchup today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?

JJ Wetherholt (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Monday, June 22, 2026: JJ Wetherholt (100), Zach Neto (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (97), Jo Adell (93), Tyler Freeman (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Monday, June 22, 2026?

No — JJ Wetherholt didn't record a run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year. Tyler Freeman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .137 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year. Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, June 22, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, June 22, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 0/5 (0%) on 1+ run, against 50% on the season.

Top 5

0/50%

season 50%

Top 10

2/1020%

season 53%

Full slate

52/21624%

season 37%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. JJ Wetherholt didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–5

NYYaway

DEThomeTop matchup71 Final · 2–1

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup74 Final · 4–3

TEXaway

MIAhomeTop matchup68 Final · 1–4

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup85 Final · 2–4

HOUaway

TORhomeTop matchup67 Final · 2–1

MILaway

CINhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–1

LADaway

MINhomeTop matchup90 Final · 5–6

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–3

AZaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

BOSaway

COLhomeTop matchup97 Final · 6–1

BALaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–1

ATLaway

SDhomeTop matchup86

Not starting44 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 260 shownScore

57 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Taylor WardDH
BAL@LAA· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #30
T1
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #93
T1
James WoodRF
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T1
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #99
T1
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #154
T1
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@MIA· 3-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #162
7
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.7 R, #6
T7
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #10
T7
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.7 R, #12
T7
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@COL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #14
T7
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@LAA· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T7
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #19
T7
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #23
T7
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TOR· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #27
T7
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #28
T7
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsAZ· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #37
T7
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TOR· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #40
T7
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #41
T7
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@STL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #42
T7
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #43
T7
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #45
T7
George SpringerDH
TORvsHOU· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #48
T7
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@CIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #52
T7
Blake DunnCF
CINvsMIL· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #53
T7
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T7
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@CIN· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #60
T7
Manny Machado3B
SDvsATL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #67
T7
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #69
T7
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsAZ· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #73
T7
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #76
T7
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #79
T7
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #84
T7
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@DET· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #91
T7
José CaballeroSS
NYY@DET· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #112
T7
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsHOU· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #118
T7
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #120
T7
Joe MackC
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #126
T7
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #129
T7
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #130
T7
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #131
T7
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #132
T7
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@WSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #136
T7
Jake Burger1B
TEX@MIA· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #148
T7
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #151
T7
Michael Massey2B
KC@TB· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #168
T7
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #174
T7
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #193
T7
Nick Loftin3B
KC@TB· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #200
T7
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsHOU· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #208
T7
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #209
T7
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #212
T7
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #213
T7
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T7
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T7
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@CWS· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R
T7
Steven KwanLF
CLE@CWS
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R
T7
Austin WellsC
NYY@DET· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026

JJ Wetherholt (STL) is the top runs matchup on the Monday, June 22, 2026 board at 100, with Zach Neto (LAA) and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: JJ Wetherholt

JJ Wetherholt (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is scoring at .179 R/PA against righties this year — and .179 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .167 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (97) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .114 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), hitter's park, hot bat.
Jo Adell (LAA) (93) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
Tyler Freeman (COL) (92) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a strong bat at .144 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (90) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an excellent bat at .169 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.138).
Caleb Durbin (BOS) (87) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), hitter's park.
Alec Burleson (STL) (87) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).

Platoon edges to target

JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
Tyler Freeman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .137 against lefties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.

Best parks to score in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 97.

How it played out

2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play JJ Wetherholt finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?: JJ Wetherholt (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Monday, June 22, 2026: JJ Wetherholt (100), Zach Neto (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (97), Jo Adell (93), Tyler Freeman (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Monday, June 22, 2026?: No — JJ Wetherholt didn't record a run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year. Tyler Freeman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .137 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year. Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.
Which parks favor runs today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 97.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.