Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top runs spot: JJ Wetherholt
JJ Wetherholt (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is scoring at .179 R/PA against righties this year — and .179 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .167 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (97) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .114 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Jo Adell (LAA) (93) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (92) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a strong bat at .144 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (90) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an excellent bat at .169 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.138).
- Caleb Durbin (BOS) (87) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), hitter's park.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (87) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
Platoon edges to target
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .137 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 97.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play JJ Wetherholt finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.