Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Juan Soto (100), A.J. Ewing (99), Francisco Lindor (83), Kyle Schwarber (78), Bryce Harper (76). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year. A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year. Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Runs Board · Today

Best MLB runs matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. On-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

7:10 PM ET

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 18 hitters are projected from each team's last game. Batting order (a key score driver) isn't final; these update automatically ~2 hours before first pitch.

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.140

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18438 PA

Season.143216 PA

Last 2 Years.182881 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC2

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.139

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18848 PA

Season.155251 PA

Last 2 Years.152689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.117154 PA

Season.095977 PA

Last 2 Years.0962821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.381

Hard-Hit %39%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.331

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head11-for-42

Runs0 in 59 PA

Career Average.186

Plate Appearances59

HR · K · BB5 · 11 · 17

Projection

Projected Runs0.598

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Juan Soto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.130

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18643 PA

Season.138160 PA

Last 2 Years.138160 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.139

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18848 PA

Season.155251 PA

Last 2 Years.152689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.117154 PA

Season.095977 PA

Last 2 Years.0962821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.336

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.331

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-3

Runs0 in 3 PA

Career Average.667

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.596

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

A.J. Ewing's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.125

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.10837 PA

Season.126119 PA

Last 2 Years.162839 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 7vs KC0

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.139

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18848 PA

Season.155251 PA

Last 2 Years.152689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.117154 PA

Season.095977 PA

Last 2 Years.0962821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.314

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.331

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head8-for-38

Runs0 in 42 PA

Career Average.191

Plate Appearances42

HR · K · BB1 · 10 · 2

Projection

Projected Runs0.567

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Francisco Lindor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.126

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.09144 PA

Season.142254 PA

Last 2 Years.155921 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.120

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.14335 PA

Season.111144 PA

Last 2 Years.131168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.125

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.137204 PA

Season.1301156 PA

Last 2 Years.1092961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.347

Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.316

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.559

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kyle Schwarber's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.133

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.09144 PA

Season.185248 PA

Last 2 Years.137796 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET1

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.120

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.14335 PA

Season.111144 PA

Last 2 Years.131168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.125

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.137204 PA

Season.1301156 PA

Last 2 Years.1092961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.354

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.316

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.555

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryce Harper's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.6×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.129

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.17540 PA

Season.135290 PA

Last 2 Years.135290 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC2

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.139

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18848 PA

Season.155251 PA

Last 2 Years.152689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.117154 PA

Season.095977 PA

Last 2 Years.0962821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.331

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.331

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-3

Runs0 in 3 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.542

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Carson Benge's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.139

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.22744 PA

Season.150274 PA

Last 2 Years.139928 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 7@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.04589 PA

Last 2 Years.037107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118204 PA

Season.1151127 PA

Last 2 Years.1093332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.315

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.318

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.527

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Trea Turner's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.112

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0001 PA

Season.0007 PA

Last 2 Years.099393 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 27vs PHI0

Jun 28vs PHI0

Jul 4@ ATL0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.17423 PA

Season.144174 PA

Last 2 Years.120510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118238 PA

Season.0961450 PA

Last 2 Years.0954553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.307

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.337

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Runs0.511

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Eric Wagaman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.127

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08547 PA

Season.157262 PA

Last 2 Years.142781 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.120

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.14335 PA

Season.111144 PA

Last 2 Years.131168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.125

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.137204 PA

Season.1301156 PA

Last 2 Years.1092961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.337

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.316

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.507

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brandon Marsh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.125

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.4449 PA

Season.12365 PA

Last 2 Years.109412 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 5@ ATL1

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.17423 PA

Season.144174 PA

Last 2 Years.120510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118238 PA

Season.0961450 PA

Last 2 Years.0954553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.315

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.337

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head5-for-12

Runs0 in 14 PA

Career Average.357

Plate Appearances14

HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.486

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Tyrone Taylor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.114

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.15040 PA

Season.098255 PA

Last 2 Years.108604 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS2

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.139

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18848 PA

Season.155251 PA

Last 2 Years.152689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.117154 PA

Season.095977 PA

Last 2 Years.0962821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.315

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.331

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-12

Runs0 in 15 PA

Career Average.067

Plate Appearances15

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 3

Projection

Projected Runs0.47

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brett Baty's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.115

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.15819 PA

Season.119126 PA

Last 2 Years.084392 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 5@ ATL1

Jul 6@ ATL0

Jul 7vs KC2

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.17423 PA

Season.144174 PA

Last 2 Years.120510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118238 PA

Season.0961450 PA

Last 2 Years.0954553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.302

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.337

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-6

Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.462

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Luis Torrens's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~2.4× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.110

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.13046 PA

Season.098255 PA

Last 2 Years.094784 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.04589 PA

Last 2 Years.037107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118204 PA

Season.1151127 PA

Last 2 Years.1093332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.312

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.318

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Runs0.461

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Alec Bohm's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.119

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.14349 PA

Season.112276 PA

Last 2 Years.117905 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.120

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.14335 PA

Season.111144 PA

Last 2 Years.131168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.125

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.137204 PA

Season.1301156 PA

Last 2 Years.1092961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.310

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.316

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.46

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryson Stott's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.113

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00010 PA

Season.11172 PA

Last 2 Years.120267 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 27@ NYM0

Jul 6@ KC0

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.04589 PA

Last 2 Years.037107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118204 PA

Season.1151127 PA

Last 2 Years.1093332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.292

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.318

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.459

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Edmundo Sosa's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.135

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.23517 PA

Season.19656 PA

Last 2 Years.161223 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 7@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN1

Jul 10@ DET1

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.04589 PA

Last 2 Years.037107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118204 PA

Season.1151127 PA

Last 2 Years.1093332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.318

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.318

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Runs0.456

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Derek Hill's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.109

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0003 PA

Season.03033 PA

Last 2 Years.09375 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 18@ PHI1

Jun 20@ PHI0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.17423 PA

Season.144174 PA

Last 2 Years.120510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118238 PA

Season.0961450 PA

Last 2 Years.0954553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.301

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.337

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Runs0.434

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Zack Short's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.115

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.09731 PA

Season.117188 PA

Last 2 Years.114718 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET2

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.04589 PA

Last 2 Years.037107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.118204 PA

Season.1151127 PA

Last 2 Years.1093332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.306

Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.318

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Runs0.42

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

J.T. Realmuto's full player page →

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Juan Soto (NYM) is the top runs matchup on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, with A.J. Ewing (NYM) and Francisco Lindor (NYM) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Juan Soto

Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The lefty is scoring at .143 R/PA against righties this year — and .184 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been getting lit up by righties lately — .188 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .186 in 59 career PA against Aaron Nola, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

A.J. Ewing (NYM) (99) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188).
Francisco Lindor (NYM) (83) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (78) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (76) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Carson Benge (NYM) (69) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
Trea Turner (PHI) (60) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .139 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Eric Wagaman (NYM) (51) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a league-average bat at .112 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), due to bounce back.

Platoon edges to target

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.

Lineup watch

18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Juan Soto (100), A.J. Ewing (99), Francisco Lindor (83), Kyle Schwarber (78), Bryce Harper (76). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year. A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year. Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays