Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026
Top runs spot: Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is scoring at .154 R/PA against righties this year — and .122 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Grayson Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (97) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .142 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (88) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (83) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (81) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.417), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (81) vs RHP Hunter Greene: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.357), hot bat.
- Josh Bell (MIN) (80) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (80) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .137 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Josh Bell (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Trevor Larnach finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays