Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, July 10, 2026)?

Trevor Larnach (MIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, July 10, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Friday, July 10, 2026: Trevor Larnach (100), Kody Clemens (97), Fernando Tatis Jr. (88), Rafael Devers (83), Heliot Ramos (81). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, July 10, 2026?

Yes — Trevor Larnach got 1 run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year. Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year. Josh Bell (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, July 10, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, July 10, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ run, against 51% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 51%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 49%

Full slate

89/25135%

season 38%

Top call Trevor Larnach came through. Kody Clemens didn't.

Final · 2–10

PHIaway

DEThomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–3

NYYaway

WSHhomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–5

KCaway

BALhomeTop matchup80 Final · 3–2

CLEaway

MIAhomeTop matchup56 Final · 0–4

CHCaway

CINhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–7

SEAaway

TBhomeTop matchup51 Final · 6–2

BOSaway

NYMhomeTop matchup62 Final · 1–14

ATHaway

CWShomeTop matchup71 Final · 3–7

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup59 Final · 4–3

LAAaway

MINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–2

ATLaway

STLhomeTop matchup61 Final · 5–3

TORaway

SDhomeTop matchup88 Final · 9–3

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup59 Final · 4–3

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup83

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 318 shownScore

92 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SD· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #12
T1
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsATH· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #16
T1
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-1
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #20
T1
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@NYM· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #28
T1
James WoodRF
WSHvsNYY· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #30
T1
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsCHC· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #40
T1
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsATH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #56
T1
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsSEA· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T1
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #86
T1
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@LAD· 0-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #106
T1
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@NYM· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #108
T1
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@WSH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #131
T1
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsATH· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #138
T1
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #144
T1
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsKC· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #167
T1
Kyle TeelC
CWSvsATH· 0-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #183
T1
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsATH· 4-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #192
T1
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@LAD· 0-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #232
T1
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsBOS· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #239
20
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsLAA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.7 R, #1
T20
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 3-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #4
T20
Josh BellDH
MINvsLAA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #7
T20
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsCOL· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T20
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SD· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #10
T20
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsPHI· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #11
T20
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsTOR· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T20
Colt Keith3B
DETvsPHI· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T20
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #23
T20
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #24
T20
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #29
T20
Ben Rice1B
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #32
T20
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #36
T20
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsAZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #37
T20
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #41
T20
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T20
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsKC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #58
T20
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T20
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsCHC· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #64
T20
Jake McCarthyCF
COL@SF· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #71
T20
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSEA· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #74
T20
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@MIN· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T20
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@LAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #78
T20
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #80
T20
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #83
T20
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@LAD· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #85
T20
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYM· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #87
T20
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T20
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@BAL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T20
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsPHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #93
T20
JJ BledayLF
CINvsCHC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #94
T20
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #97
T20
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@TB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T20
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #100
T20
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsLAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T20
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #107
T20
Andy PagesCF
LADvsAZ· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #114
T20
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #117
T20
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsATL· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #120
T20
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@CWS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #121
T20
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@DET· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #123
T20
Michael Massey2B
KC@BAL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T20
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsTOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T20
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #134
T20
Myles StrawRF
TOR@SD· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #137
T20
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #145
T20
Eduardo ValenciaC
DETvsPHI· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #151
T20
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsSEA· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #156
T20
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #157
T20
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@TEX· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #163
T20
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsSEA· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #166
T20
Austin HedgesC
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #171
T20
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #172
T20
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T20
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #179
T20
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsPHI· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #182
T20
Cole Young2B
SEA@TB· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #186
T20
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #200
T20
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #203
T20
Tsung-Che ChengSS
BOS@NYM· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #204
T20
James OutmanCF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #205
T20
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #209
T20
Austin WellsC
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #214
T20
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #218
T20
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@BAL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #221
T20
Jake RogersC
DETvsPHI· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #223
T20
Tyler HeinemanC
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #224
T20
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #225
T20
Leo Jiménez3B
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #226
T20
Tim TawaLF
AZ@LAD· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #245
T20
Luis CampusanoC
SDvsTOR· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R
T20
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsPHI· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@SF
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026

Trevor Larnach (MIN) is the top runs matchup on the Friday, July 10, 2026 board at 100, with Kody Clemens (MIN) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is scoring at .154 R/PA against righties this year — and .122 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Grayson Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Kody Clemens (MIN) (97) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .142 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (88) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
Rafael Devers (SF) (83) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Heliot Ramos (SF) (81) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.417), hot bat.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (81) vs RHP Hunter Greene: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.357), hot bat.
Josh Bell (MIN) (80) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (80) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .137 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103), due to bounce back.

Platoon edges to target

Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
Josh Bell (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Trevor Larnach finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, July 10, 2026)?: Trevor Larnach (MIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, July 10, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Friday, July 10, 2026: Trevor Larnach (100), Kody Clemens (97), Fernando Tatis Jr. (88), Rafael Devers (83), Heliot Ramos (81). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, July 10, 2026?: Yes — Trevor Larnach got 1 run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year. Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year. Josh Bell (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays