Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026
Top runs spot: Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is scoring at .157 R/PA against righties this year — and .122 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Grayson Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (97) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (94) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .126 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (82) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.417), hot bat.
- Josh Bell (MIN) (81) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .125 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) (81) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.500).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (81) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (79) vs RHP Hunter Greene: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.357), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.
- Josh Bell (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .179 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.