Who has the best runs matchup today (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)?

Juan Soto (NL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Tuesday, July 14, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Mike Trout (95), Kyle Schwarber (94), Junior Caminero (82), Yordan Alvarez (78). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Juan Soto (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year. Mike Trout (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .161 against lefties this year. Kyle Schwarber (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year. Junior Caminero (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .178 against lefties this year. Shea Langeliers (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .179 against lefties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Runs Board · Today

Best MLB runs matchups — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, July 14, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. On-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

8:00 PM ET

ALaway

NLhomeTop matchup100

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.140

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18438 PA

Season.143216 PA

Last 2 Years.182881 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC2

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA

Season.087229 PA

Last 2 Years.100749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.102

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.119261 PA

Season.0861800 PA

Last 2 Years.0874554 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.381

Hard-Hit %39%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.286

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-11

Runs0 in 12 PA

Career Average.167

Plate Appearances12

HR · K · BB1 · 5 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.509

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Juan Soto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.129

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.4005 PA

Season.16187 PA

Last 2 Years.141192 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 17@ AZ0

Jul 8@ TEX2

Jul 9@ TEX1

Jul 11@ MIN1

Jul 12@ MIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.16162 PA

Season.075399 PA

Last 2 Years.0811283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.071353 PA

Season.0842229 PA

Last 2 Years.0976167 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.331

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.342

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Runs0 in 3 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.504

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Mike Trout's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.126

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.09144 PA

Season.142254 PA

Last 2 Years.155921 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA

Season.087229 PA

Last 2 Years.100749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.102

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.119261 PA

Season.0861800 PA

Last 2 Years.0874554 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.347

Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.286

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-13

Runs0 in 16 PA

Career Average.188

Plate Appearances16

HR · K · BB2 · 4 · 3

Projection

Projected Runs0.502

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kyle Schwarber's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.140

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.5008 PA

Season.178107 PA

Last 2 Years.159328 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8vs NYY0

Jul 9vs NYY1

Jul 10vs SEA2

Jul 11vs SEA1

Jul 12vs SEA0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.16162 PA

Season.075399 PA

Last 2 Years.0811283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.071353 PA

Season.0842229 PA

Last 2 Years.0976167 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.361

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.342

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-6

Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.167

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.488

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Junior Caminero's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.116

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0008 PA

Season.123106 PA

Last 2 Years.120225 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 7@ WSH0

Jul 8@ WSH0

Jul 10@ TEX1

Jul 11@ TEX2

Jul 12@ TEX0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.107

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.07114 PA

Season.095126 PA

Last 2 Years.084381 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.093

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.090211 PA

Season.0841341 PA

Last 2 Years.0863598 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.332

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.267

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Runs0.484

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Yordan Alvarez's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.127

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08324 PA

Season.179112 PA

Last 2 Years.139302 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ DET0

Jul 9@ DET0

Jul 10@ CWS0

Jul 11@ CWS0

Jul 12@ CWS1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.16162 PA

Season.075399 PA

Last 2 Years.0811283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.071353 PA

Season.0842229 PA

Last 2 Years.0976167 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.352

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.342

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-4

Runs0 in 4 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances4

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.481

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Shea Langeliers's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form🔥 7-game hitting streak

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.134

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.12839 PA

Season.161279 PA

Last 2 Years.149861 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 7vs HOU0

Jul 8vs HOU1

Jul 10vs NYY0

Jul 11vs NYY0

Jul 12vs NYY0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA

Season.087229 PA

Last 2 Years.100749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.102

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.119261 PA

Season.0861800 PA

Last 2 Years.0874554 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.338

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.286

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-9

Runs0 in 10 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances10

HR · K · BB0 · 3 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.479

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

CJ Abrams's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.124

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.11136 PA

Season.137278 PA

Last 2 Years.134881 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 7vs COL0

Jul 8vs COL1

Jul 10vs AZ0

Jul 11vs AZ0

Jul 12vs AZ0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA

Season.087229 PA

Last 2 Years.100749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.102

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.119261 PA

Season.0861800 PA

Last 2 Years.0874554 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.356

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.286

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head6-for-19

Runs0 in 20 PA

Career Average.300

Plate Appearances20

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.477

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Freddie Freeman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.145

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.23738 PA

Season.188234 PA

Last 2 Years.130776 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ PIT0

Jul 9@ PIT2

Jul 10@ STL0

Jul 11@ STL0

Jul 12@ STL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA

Season.087229 PA

Last 2 Years.100749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.102

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.119261 PA

Season.0861800 PA

Last 2 Years.0874554 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.319

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.286

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-12

Runs0 in 13 PA

Career Average.231

Plate Appearances13

HR · K · BB0 · 3 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.467

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Ozzie Albies's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.132

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.22722 PA

Season.148101 PA

Last 2 Years.145323 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ NYM0

Jul 9@ NYM1

Jul 10@ BAL0

Jul 11@ BAL0

Jul 12@ BAL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.16162 PA

Season.075399 PA

Last 2 Years.0811283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.071353 PA

Season.0842229 PA

Last 2 Years.0976167 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.334

Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.342

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-6

Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.167

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.467

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bobby Witt Jr.'s full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.128

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08635 PA

Season.160256 PA

Last 2 Years.141659 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 6vs COL1

Jul 7vs COL0

Jul 8vs COL0

Jul 11vs AZ0

Jul 12vs AZ0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA

Season.087229 PA

Last 2 Years.100749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.102

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.119261 PA

Season.0861800 PA

Last 2 Years.0874554 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.333

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.286

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-12

Runs0 in 15 PA

Career Average.133

Plate Appearances15

HR · K · BB0 · 5 · 3

Projection

Projected Runs0.46

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Max Muncy's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.118

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05917 PA

Season.109138 PA

Last 2 Years.150381 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ TB0

Jul 9@ TB1

Jul 10@ WSH0

Jul 11@ WSH0

Jul 12@ WSH2

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.107

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.07114 PA

Season.095126 PA

Last 2 Years.084381 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.093

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.090211 PA

Season.0841341 PA

Last 2 Years.0863598 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.321

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.267

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-5

Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.441

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Cody Bellinger's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.127

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08547 PA

Season.157262 PA

Last 2 Years.142781 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA

Season.087229 PA

Last 2 Years.100749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.102

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.119261 PA

Season.0861800 PA

Last 2 Years.0874554 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.337

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.286

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-10

Runs0 in 11 PA

Career Average.273

Plate Appearances11

HR · K · BB1 · 3 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.433

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brandon Marsh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2.4× / ~1.6×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form🔥 8-game hitting streak

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.119

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.13023 PA

Season.121132 PA

Last 2 Years.123277 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ TB0

Jul 9@ TB3

Jul 10@ WSH1

Jul 11@ WSH0

Jul 12@ WSH0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.107

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.07114 PA

Season.095126 PA

Last 2 Years.084381 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.093

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.090211 PA

Season.0841341 PA

Last 2 Years.0863598 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.331

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.267

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Runs0.427

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Ben Rice's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.125

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.13238 PA

Season.138297 PA

Last 2 Years.126878 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 6vs COL1

Jul 7vs COL0

Jul 10vs AZ1

Jul 11vs AZ1

Jul 12vs AZ1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.103

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08025 PA

Season.064172 PA

Last 2 Years.106691 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.096240 PA

Season.0811653 PA

Last 2 Years.0954747 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.325

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.289

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-10

Runs0 in 12 PA

Career Average.083

Plate Appearances12

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.417

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Andy Pages's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.128

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.13238 PA

Season.153189 PA

Last 2 Years.133540 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8@ PIT0

Jul 9@ PIT1

Jul 10@ STL0

Jul 11@ STL0

Jul 12@ STL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA

Season.087229 PA

Last 2 Years.100749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.102

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.119261 PA

Season.0861800 PA

Last 2 Years.0874554 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.325

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.286

Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-5

Runs0 in 5 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances5

HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.413

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Drake Baldwin's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.105

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05319 PA

Season.089124 PA

Last 2 Years.091384 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 8vs ATH0

Jul 9vs ATH0

Jul 10vs PHI2

Jul 11vs PHI0

Jul 12vs PHI0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.107

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.07114 PA

Season.095126 PA

Last 2 Years.084381 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.093

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.090211 PA

Season.0841341 PA

Last 2 Years.0863598 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.317

Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.267

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-6

Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 3 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.398

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Riley Greene's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form🔥 7-game hitting streak

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.119

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.09111 PA

Season.123106 PA

Last 2 Years.131367 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 7@ SF1

Jul 8@ SF1

Jul 10@ SD1

Jul 11@ SD0

Jul 12@ SD1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.106

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.16162 PA

Season.075399 PA

Last 2 Years.0811283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.088

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.071353 PA

Season.0842229 PA

Last 2 Years.0976167 PA

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.329

Hard-Hit %29%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.342

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head4-for-12

Runs0 in 12 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances12

HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.394

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Ernie Clement's full player page →

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Juan Soto (NL) is the top runs matchup on the Tuesday, July 14, 2026 board at 100, with Mike Trout (AL) and Kyle Schwarber (NL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Juan Soto

Juan Soto (NL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. The lefty is scoring at .143 R/PA against righties this year — and .184 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Dylan Cease has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .040 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Dylan Cease, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Mike Trout (AL) (95) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.161).
Kyle Schwarber (NL) (94) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a solid bat at .126 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).
Junior Caminero (AL) (82) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.161).
Yordan Alvarez (AL) (78) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a league-average bat at .116 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
Shea Langeliers (AL) (75) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.161).
CJ Abrams (NL) (73) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a strong bat at .134 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (NL) (72) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a solid bat at .124 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).

Platoon edges to target

Juan Soto (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
Mike Trout (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .161 against lefties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
Junior Caminero (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .178 against lefties this year.
Shea Langeliers (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .179 against lefties this year.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)?: Juan Soto (NL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Tuesday, July 14, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Mike Trout (95), Kyle Schwarber (94), Junior Caminero (82), Yordan Alvarez (78). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Juan Soto (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year. Mike Trout (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .161 against lefties this year. Kyle Schwarber (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year. Junior Caminero (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .178 against lefties this year. Shea Langeliers (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .179 against lefties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays