Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. The lefty is scoring at .217 R/PA against righties this year — and .295 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Will Warren has been getting lit up by righties lately — .200 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Will Warren. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (100) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (94) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.304).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (92) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (91) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (91) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.304).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (89) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.256).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (88) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .217 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .130 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays