Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. The lefty is scoring at .216 R/PA against righties this year — and .300 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Will Warren has been getting lit up by righties lately — .178 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Will Warren. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (89) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (88) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.256).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (88) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.256).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (87) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.256).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (84) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (84) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.178).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (81) vs RHP JR Ritchie: a strong bat at .147 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .216 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.