Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026
Top runs spot: Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement (TOR) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walker Buehler. The righty is scoring at .108 R/PA against righties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a run in about 11% of his trips. And Walker Buehler has been getting lit up by righties lately — .407 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 5 career PA against Walker Buehler, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) (100) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.229).
- George Springer (TOR) (95) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.407), hot bat.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (93) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.407).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (92) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .144 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.048).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (91) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.229).
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) (90) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (86) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .134 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
Platoon edges to target
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .180 against righties this year.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .185 against lefties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Ernie Clement finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays