Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026
Top runs spot: Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is scoring at .154 R/PA against righties this year — and .212 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been getting lit up by righties lately — .180 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Bubba Chandler. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brice Turang (MIL) (90) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.180).
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (89) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .134 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Amed Rosario (NYY) (89) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.355).
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (85) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a league-average bat at .110 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.407), hot bat.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (84) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.180).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (84) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208).
- Kyle Karros (COL) (83) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
Platoon edges to target
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .185 against lefties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.