MatchWiz

Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez — our top-20 calls on him have hit 72% this season. His matchups, projections, and the full graded record.

Last scored board
100
Doubles · vs CWS · 2026-09-30
Our calls on him · hits
72%
1+ hit in 59/82 top-20 calls
Games graded
148
this season, box-score final
Yordan Alvarez
DHBats LThrows RHouston Astros
Doubles100/100proj 0.2#1Fantasy Points100/100proj 8#1H+R+RBI100/100proj 2.1#1Home Runs100/100proj 0.5#1RBIs100/100proj 0.7#1Walks100/100proj 0.5#1Hits91.6/100proj 1.1#3Total Bases86.9/100proj 1.8#3Runs84.6/100proj 0.6#4Singles64.2/100proj 0.7#7Triples12.9/100proj 0#21Stolen Bases3.2/100proj 0#46

Last scored matchup

Yordan isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 8 days ago, at home against Chicago White Sox on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, where he landed on doubles (100/100), fantasy points (100/100), h+r+rbi (100/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

Recent form

Yordan is 13-for-40 (.325) over his last 10 games, in line with his .307 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Yordan has 39 home runs and 73 extra-base hits in 540 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Yordan hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Yordan has recorded at least one hit in 104 of 148 games he's batted in — 70% — with 48 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Yordan is hitting .355 at home (94-for-265) and .262 on the road (72-for-275) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.

His best game in the log

Yordan's biggest night was Saturday, September 26, 2026 at ATH — 2-for-5 with 1 homer, 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Yordan have graded

We've ranked Yordan a top-20 hitter matchup 82 times this season. He got a hit in 59 of them — 72%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Yordan was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: doubles graded 100/100 while stolen bases came in at 3.2/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Yordan and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, September 30vs CWS40000
Tuesday, September 29vs CWS41000
Sunday, September 27@ ATH41011
Saturday, September 26@ ATH52123
Friday, September 25@ ATH31010
Thursday, September 24@ ATH41000
Wednesday, September 23@ SEA42020
Tuesday, September 22@ SEA42113
Sunday, September 20vs ATL42000
Saturday, September 19vs ATL41000
Friday, September 18vs ATL21010
Thursday, September 17vs KC42111

Yordan Alvarez — FAQ

Is Yordan Alvarez playing today?

Yordan Alvarez isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Wednesday, September 30, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Yordan Alvarez graded?

In the 82 games where our model ranked Yordan a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 59 times — 72%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Yordan Alvarez been hitting lately?

Yordan is 13-for-40 (.325) over his last 10 games, against .307 on the season across 540 at-bats in our log, with 39 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Yordan Alvarez appear on?

Yordan was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — doubles, fantasy points, h+r+rbi, home runs, rbis. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Yordan Alvarez's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).