MatchWiz

Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: hits at 96.6/100.

Today's top board
96.6
Hits · @ MIL
Our calls on him · hits
68%
1+ hit in 34/50 top-20 calls
Games graded
107
this season, box-score final
Drake Baldwin
CBats LThrows RAtlanta Braves
Hits96.6/100proj 1.1#2H+R+RBI84.4/100proj 1.9#9Singles76.4/100proj 0.7#7Runs75.3/100proj 0.5#18RBIs66.8/100proj 0.5#25Total Bases62.5/100proj 1.7#28Walks52.3/100proj 0.4#28Fantasy Points48.8/100proj 6.8#29Doubles42/100proj 0.2#42Home Runs35/100proj 0.2#18Triples19/100proj 0#24Stolen Bases0.6/100proj 0#88

Today's matchup

Drake is on the road against Milwaukee Brewers on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — hits (96.6/100, #2), h+r+rbi (84.4/100, #9), singles (76.4/100, #7), runs (75.3/100, #18). We've got him at 1.1 on the hits board. That's one of the stronger spots on the board today. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Drake is 10-for-39 (.256) over his last 10 games, in line with his .266 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Drake has 21 home runs and 31 extra-base hits in 417 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Drake hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Drake has recorded at least one hit in 71 of 107 games he's batted in — 66% — with 33 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Drake is hitting .282 at home (62-for-220) and .249 on the road (49-for-197) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Drake's biggest night was Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at MIN — 2-for-4 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Drake have graded

We've ranked Drake a top-20 hitter matchup 50 times this season. He got a hit in 34 of them — 68%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Drake was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: hits graded 96.6/100 while stolen bases came in at 0.6/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Drake and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22@ MIL20010
Friday, August 21@ MIL40000
Thursday, August 20@ CWS40000
Wednesday, August 19@ MIN50000
Tuesday, August 18@ MIN42111
Monday, August 17@ MIN52010
Sunday, August 16vs AZ31011
Saturday, August 15vs AZ41010
Friday, August 14vs AZ41000
Wednesday, August 12vs NYM43001
Tuesday, August 11vs NYM30010
Monday, August 10vs NYM52011

Drake Baldwin — FAQ

Who is Drake Baldwin facing today?

Drake Baldwin is facing Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 96.6/100 on our hits board, ranked #2.

What is Drake Baldwin's projection today?

We project Drake for 1.1 on the hits board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Drake Baldwin graded?

In the 50 games where our model ranked Drake a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 34 times — 68%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Drake Baldwin been hitting lately?

Drake is 10-for-39 (.256) over his last 10 games, against .266 on the season across 417 at-bats in our log, with 21 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Drake Baldwin appear on?

Drake was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — hits, h+r+rbi, singles, runs, rbis. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Drake Baldwin's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).