No projection this week
Alexander doesn't have a projection right now — either his team is on a bye, the week's slate hasn't been simulated yet, or he isn't in a position to draw usage. His game log and the usage read below are the real record either way, and this page picks him back up as soon as there's a game to simulate.
How much he's on the field
46% — that's Alexander's average snap share over 20 games. That's a limited role, and it caps everything else on this page. A player on a third of the snaps can't produce like a starter no matter how efficient he is, and the projection reflects the opportunity rather than the talent. This is the number to check first on any football page. Everything else here is downstream of it.
What kind of back he is
Alexander has 182 carries for 659 yards (3.6 a carry) and 4 rushing touchdowns. He's also seen 56 targets for 322 yards — pass-game work is what separates a back who plays on third down from one who leaves the field, and it's worth more to a projection than the same yardage on the ground. Running-back yardage swings hard on the blocking in front of him, which is why the model weighs opportunity — carries and targets — above efficiency.
His last 5 games
Over that stretch Alexander has 218 total yards. A handful of games is thin evidence in a seventeen-game season. It nudges the projection; it doesn't drive it.
How the model reads him
Alexander's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.
What we'd flag
Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection.