No projection this week
Chris doesn't have a projection right now — either his team is on a bye, the week's slate hasn't been simulated yet, or he isn't in a position to draw usage. His game log and the usage read below are the real record either way, and this page picks him back up as soon as there's a game to simulate.
How much he's on the field
57% — that's Chris's average snap share over 4 games. That's a rotational-to-starter share. It's the number most likely to move his projection week to week, because a swing of ten points of snap share moves everything downstream with it. This is the number to check first on any football page. Everything else here is downstream of it.
What kind of back he is
Chris has 54 carries for 232 yards (4.3 a carry) and 3 rushing touchdowns. He's barely used in the passing game, which caps his floor: a two-down back only touches the ball when his side is ahead or grinding. Running-back yardage swings hard on the blocking in front of him, which is why the model weighs opportunity — carries and targets — above efficiency.
His last 4 games
Over that stretch Chris has 261 total yards. A handful of games is thin evidence in a seventeen-game season. It nudges the projection; it doesn't drive it.
How the model reads him
Chris's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.
What we'd flag
Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection. For Chris specifically, Chris has only 4 games in our log, so every rate on this page is fragile.