MatchWiz

Latavius Murray

RBBUFBuffalo Bills

No projection this week — he isn't on the current slate.

No projection this week

Latavius doesn't have a projection right now — either his team is on a bye, the week's slate hasn't been simulated yet, or he isn't in a position to draw usage. His game log and the usage read below are the real record either way, and this page picks him back up as soon as there's a game to simulate.

How much he's on the field

35% — that's Latavius's average snap share over 20 games. That's a limited role, and it caps everything else on this page. A player on a third of the snaps can't produce like a starter no matter how efficient he is, and the projection reflects the opportunity rather than the talent. This is the number to check first on any football page. Everything else here is downstream of it.

What kind of back he is

Latavius has 114 carries for 493 yards (4.3 a carry) and 5 rushing touchdowns. He's also seen 38 targets for 196 yards — pass-game work is what separates a back who plays on third down from one who leaves the field, and it's worth more to a projection than the same yardage on the ground. Running-back yardage swings hard on the blocking in front of him, which is why the model weighs opportunity — carries and targets — above efficiency.

His last 5 games

Over that stretch Latavius has 81 total yards. Worth noting: his snap share is trending down — 23% lately against 35% overall. A handful of games is thin evidence in a seventeen-game season. It nudges the projection; it doesn't drive it.

How the model reads him

Latavius's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.

What we'd flag

Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection. For Latavius specifically, he's on the field for a minority of snaps, which caps the projection regardless of how he's playing.

Latavius Murray — FAQ

How much does Latavius Murray play?

He's averaged 35% of his team's snaps across 20 games in our log. Snap share is the most stable input on this page — it moves slowly and it survives a bad game, which is why the model weighs opportunity above efficiency.

Are Latavius Murray's projections betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Game Log

WkOppSnapsTgtRecRecYdCarRushYdTD
2023 · 20KC18%4327000
2023 · 19PIT15%2213000
2023 · 17NE28%100100
2023 · 15DAL21%0005110
2023 · 14KC32%1121390
2023 · 12PHI44%53189300
2023 · 11NYJ32%00010350
2023 · 10DEN52%3219680
2023 · 9CIN45%116240
2023 · 8TB33%114570
2023 · 7NE45%2220480
2023 · 6NYG49%00012450
2023 · 5JAX18%111260
2023 · 4MIA33%22244320
2023 · 3WSH25%1165150
2023 · 2LV23%2296220
2023 · 1NYJ23%219280
2022 · 18LAC60%1115151030
2022 · 17KC60%641612560
2022 · 16LAR46%3168340

Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).