MatchWiz

Logan Thomas

TEWSHWashington Commanders

No projection this week — he isn't on the current slate.

No projection this week

Logan doesn't have a projection right now — either his team is on a bye, the week's slate hasn't been simulated yet, or he isn't in a position to draw usage. His game log and the usage read below are the real record either way, and this page picks him back up as soon as there's a game to simulate.

How much he's on the field

70% — that's Logan's average snap share over 20 games. That's a rotational-to-starter share. It's the number most likely to move his projection week to week, because a swing of ten points of snap share moves everything downstream with it. This is the number to check first on any football page. Everything else here is downstream of it.

What kind of tight end he is

Tight end is the position where usage varies most: two players with the same label can be a primary receiving option and a sixth offensive lineman. Logan has caught 70 of 99 targets (71%) for 609 yards and 4 touchdowns — 6.2 yards per target. Yards per target is the honest efficiency number here, because catch rate mostly measures how far downfield he's used: a slot receiver on screens will always catch more of them than a deep threat, without being better.

His last 5 games

Over that stretch Logan has 72 total yards. A handful of games is thin evidence in a seventeen-game season. It nudges the projection; it doesn't drive it.

How the model reads him

Logan's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.

What we'd flag

Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection.

Logan Thomas — FAQ

How much does Logan Thomas play?

He's averaged 70% of his team's snaps across 20 games in our log. Snap share is the most stable input on this page — it moves slowly and it survives a bad game, which is why the model weighs opportunity above efficiency.

Are Logan Thomas's projections betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Game Log

WkOppSnapsTgtRecRecYdCarRushYdTD
2023 · 18DAL53%219000
2023 · 17SF61%4320000
2023 · 16NYJ70%6536001
2023 · 15LAR80%317000
2023 · 13MIA62%100000
2023 · 12DAL64%4215000
2023 · 11NYG70%8558000
2023 · 10SEA74%5540000
2023 · 9NE73%5431000
2023 · 8PHI74%8644001
2023 · 7NYG68%6451000
2023 · 6ATL78%112000
2023 · 5CHI79%11977001
2023 · 4PHI79%3341120
2023 · 2DEN40%3222001
2023 · 1ARI82%8443000
2022 · 18DAL70%3216000
2022 · 17CLE83%7656000
2022 · 16SF71%8635000
2022 · 15NYG63%316000

Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).