MatchWiz

Taylor Heinicke

QBLACLos Angeles Chargers

No projection this week — he isn't on the current slate.

No projection this week

Taylor doesn't have a projection right now — either his team is on a bye, the week's slate hasn't been simulated yet, or he isn't in a position to draw usage. His game log and the usage read below are the real record either way, and this page picks him back up as soon as there's a game to simulate.

How much he's on the field

76% — that's Taylor's average snap share over 20 games. That's a rotational-to-starter share. It's the number most likely to move his projection week to week, because a swing of ten points of snap share moves everything downstream with it. This is the number to check first on any football page. Everything else here is downstream of it.

What kind of quarterback he is

Taylor has completed 274 of 454 (60%) for 3144 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions — 6.9 yards an attempt. He's also run for 257 yards, which matters more than it looks: rushing production is the most reliable floor a quarterback has, because it doesn't depend on anyone catching anything. Yards per attempt is the number to watch: completion percentage rewards checkdowns, and a quarterback can complete 70% of his passes without ever threatening anybody.

His last 5 games

Over that stretch Taylor has 257 total yards. Worth noting: his snap share is trending down — 25% lately against 76% overall. A handful of games is thin evidence in a seventeen-game season. It nudges the projection; it doesn't drive it.

How the model reads him

Taylor's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.

What we'd flag

Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection.

Taylor Heinicke — FAQ

How much does Taylor Heinicke play?

He's averaged 76% of his team's snaps across 20 games in our log. Snap share is the most stable input on this page — it moves slowly and it survives a bad game, which is why the model weighs opportunity above efficiency.

Are Taylor Heinicke's projections betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Game Log

WkOppSnapsCmpAttYdsTDINTRush
2024 · 17NE13%020008
2024 · 15TB2%114000
2024 · 14KC2%0000012
2024 · 3PIT22%2224000
2023 · 17CHI88%10291631346
2023 · 16IND100%23332291010
2023 · 10ARI69%815551034
2023 · 9MIN100%21382681120
2023 · 8TEN54%12211751014
2022 · 16SF74%131816621-4
2022 · 15NYG100%17292491033
2022 · 13NYG100%2741275206
2022 · 12ATL100%142313821-1
2022 · 11HOU100%1527191002
2022 · 10PHI100%17292110110
2022 · 9MIN100%15281492117
2022 · 8IND100%23312791129
2022 · 7GB100%2033201214
2021 · 18NYG100%918120003
2021 · 17PHI100%27362470114

Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).