Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, June 10, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, June 10, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.5 BF
Expected batters faced10.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%1.6
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%1.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%1.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%1.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%1.0
7. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.7%1.0
8. Nathan Church (L)11.7%1.0
9. José Fermín (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload13.3 BF
Expected batters faced13.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%2.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%2.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%2.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%1.3
6. Gary Sánchez (R)11.7%1.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%1.0
8. David Hamilton (L)11.7%1.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload15.5 BF
Expected batters faced15.5
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%2.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%2.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%2.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%2.0
6. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%1.5
8. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%1.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.1 BF
Expected batters faced19.1
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%2.1
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%2.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.7%2.2
4. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%2.0
5. Riley Greene (L)11.7%2.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Colt Keith (L)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Carlos Cortes (L)11.7%2.4
5. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
7. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Angel Martínez (R)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%3.0
4. David Fry (R)11.7%2.6
5. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%2.0
6. Stuart Fairchild (R)11.7%2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
5. Will Wagner (L)11.7%2.1
6. Samad Taylor (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryce Johnson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%2.2
6. Starling Marte (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0
2. Austin Slater (R)11.7%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%2.2
6. Ben Williamson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
8. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)11.7%2.2
6. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)11.7%3.0
4. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.3
6. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
4. Amed Rosario (R)11.7%3.0
5. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%2.8
6. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%3.0
5. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.9
6. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
7. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%3.0
6. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%2.0
7. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
9. Andruw Monasterio (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt McLain (R)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)11.7%2.0
8. Noelvi Marte (R)11.7%2.0
9. P.J. Higgins (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.2
7. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.2
7. Tyler Callihan (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.2
7. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
8. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.5
7. Shay Whitcomb (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brooks Lee (R)11.7%3.0
4. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%3.0
5. Josh Bell (R)11.7%3.0
6. Royce Lewis (R)11.7%2.5
7. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%3.0
5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
6. Brandon Valenzuela (R)11.7%2.5
7. Charles McAdoo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)11.7%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%3.0
6. Nick Madrigal (R)11.7%2.5
7. Trey Mancini (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%3.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.9
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.9
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Austin Wynns (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%3.0
6. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%3.0
7. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.1
8. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)11.7%2.0
9. Patrick Wisdom (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%3.0
7. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.5
8. Braxton Fulford (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corey Seager (L)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Wyatt Langford (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
7. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.9
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Edgar Quero (R)11.7%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (R)11.7%3.0
6. Derek Hill (R)11.7%3.0
7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.9
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%3.0
7. Christopher Morel (R)11.7%3.0
8. Owen Caissie (L)11.7%2.2
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
25 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Ryne NelsonP
AZ@MIA· proj #30
7ERFinal
2
Max ScherzerP
TORvsPHI· proj #4
5ERFinal
T2
Robbie RayP
SFvsWSH· proj #12
5ERFinal
4
Jake BennettP
BOS@TB· proj #10
4ERFinal
T4
Parker MessickP
CLEvsNYY· proj #13
4ERFinal
T4
Framber ValdezP
DETvsMIN· proj #21
4ERFinal
7
Jack PerkinsP
ATHvsMIL· proj #2
3ERFinal
T7
Carlos RodónP
NYY@CLE· proj #7
3ERFinal
T7
Michael KingP
SDvsCIN· proj #16
3ERFinal
T7
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@PIT· 1-for-5· proj #18
3ERFinal
T7
George KirbyP
SEA@BAL· proj #24
3ERFinal
12
Austin WarrenP
NYMvsSTL· proj #1
2ERFinal
T12
Brady SingerP
CIN@SD· proj #8
2ERFinal
T12
MacKenzie GoreP
TEX@KC· proj #9
2ERFinal
T12
Jared JonesP
PITvsLAD· proj #11
2ERFinal
T12
Andre PallanteP
STL@NYM· proj #14
2ERFinal
T12
Peter LambertP
HOU@LAA· proj #23
2ERFinal
T12
Chris SaleP
ATL@CWS· proj #29
2ERFinal
19
Mike ParedesP
MIN@DET· proj #5
1ERFinal
T19
Brandon SproatP
MIL@ATH· proj #6
1ERFinal
T19
Foster GriffinP
WSH@SF· proj #17
1ERFinal
T19
Michael LorenzenP
COLvsCHC· proj #19
1ERFinal
T19
Reid DetmersP
LAAvsHOU· proj #20
1ERFinal
T19
Jesús LuzardoP
PHI@TOR· proj #22
1ERFinal
T19
Seth LugoP
KCvsTEX· proj #28
1ERFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 10, 2026
Austin Warren (NYM) is the top earned runs spot on the Wednesday, June 10, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER, with Jack Perkins (ATH) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Austin Warren
Austin Warren (NYM) tops the Wednesday, June 10, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER vs STL. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Jack Perkins (ATH) (81) — about 1.5 ER vs MIL.
Ryan Gusto (MIA) (66) — about 1.7 ER vs AZ.
Max Scherzer (TOR) (41) — about 2.2 ER vs PHI.
Mike Paredes (MIN) (34) — about 2.3 ER vs DET.
Brandon Sproat (MIL) (26) — about 2.4 ER vs ATH.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.3 ER. Austin Warren finished with 2. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 10, 2026)?
Austin Warren (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER against STL.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Wednesday, June 10, 2026: Austin Warren (~1.2 ER), Jack Perkins (~1.5 ER), Ryan Gusto (~1.7 ER), Max Scherzer (~2.2 ER), Mike Paredes (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
