ATP matchups
Men's tour: who wins, how, and by how much. Our number beside the books' on every main-draw match. Times are ET.
ATP record Our favourite won 1 of 2 (50%) · small sample, read it lightly
13 of 13 projected · 13 with a book moneyline · view a matchup for set betting, total sets, the games lines and form
Likeliest Darderi 2-0 (34%) · Proj 24.1 games · Over 22.5 50%
Likeliest Musetti 2-0 (30%) · Proj 24.1 games · Over 24.5 44%
Likeliest Bergs 2-0 (36%) · Proj 24.0 games · Over 22.5 50%
Likeliest Navone 2-0 (34%) · Proj 24.1 games · Over 22.5 50%
Likeliest Jodar 2-0 (50%) · Proj 23.2 games · Over 21.5 52%
Likeliest Merida 2-0 (30%) · Proj 24.1 games · Over 22.5 51%
Likeliest Norrie 2-0 (41%) · Proj 23.8 games · Over 22.5 49%
Likeliest Ruud 2-0 (48%) · Proj 23.4 games · Over 22.5 46%
Likeliest Bellucci 2-0 (30%) · Proj 24.1 games · Over 23.5 45%
Likeliest Machac 2-0 (37%) · Proj 24.0 games · Over 22.5 50%
Likeliest Molcan 2-0 (39%) · Proj 23.9 games · Over 22.5 49%
Likeliest Khachanov 2-0 (29%) · Proj 24.1 games · Over 23.5 45%
Likeliest Van De Zandschulp 2-0 (32%) · Proj 24.1 games · Over 23.5 45%
Ours is the model's win probability; Mkt is the books' price with the hold taken out, averaged across books. Best is the best price on the board right now.
How the numbers are built
One engine sits under all five tabs. A rating says who's likelier to win. That becomes each player's chance of holding serve, and a game-by-game chain plays the match out: every set score, every games total, every handicap. So a 75% favourite can't look like a blowout on one tab and a coin flip on another.
The rating is Elo (the full table), split by surface and blended, fitted on 2022–24 and checked on 2025–26. It picks the winner about two times in three, which is roughly what a public tennis rating does. On the ATP it ran hot on big favourites, so the men's gaps are scaled down. Best of 5 stretches a favourite's edge, and the chain does that itself.
The games numbers are honest about one thing: a match goes two sets or three, so the games total has a hole in the middle. That's why we show the chance of going over the book's line, not our projected games against it. Heavy favourites run about a game longer than we project, and we haven't tuned that away yet.
A thin tag means the player has fewer than 20 tour matches behind his or her rating. Nothing on this board is graded yet, so nothing is gold. It's a number to check against your book, not a pick.